Serbia’s foreign trade expanded to €39.65 billion in the first half of 2026, up 5.8% year on year, while a stronger services balance helped reduce pressure on the country’s external accounts. The current-account deficit stood at approximately €561 million in the first five months of 2026. In May alone, the shortfall narrowed to about €125 million, supported by a larger services surplus, a smaller primary-income deficit and an improved goods balance. The figures point to an external sector increasingly supported by services alongside Serbia’s established industrial export base.
Services provide additional external-balance support
Information technology, professional services, transport, logistics and tourism are generating foreign-currency revenues with lower imported-material requirements than many heavy industrial activities. Tourism activity continued to expand in June. Tourist arrivals increased by 1.7% year on year, while overnight stays rose by 2%. Foreign visitor nights increased by 3.3%, with Belgrade, Novi Sad, Subotica, Zlatibor, Kopaonik and Serbia’s main spa centres recording the strongest activity.
Tourism remains a contributor to the external balance rather than its dominant export component. ICT and professional services have greater potential to expand foreign-exchange earnings as European companies seek lower-cost engineering, software and back-office capacity closer to their home markets.
Industrial exporters remain concentrated in a small number of sectors
Goods exports continue to depend heavily on several major industrial operations. Zijin Mining and Zijin Copper in Bor, HBIS Serbia in Smederevo, the automotive complex surrounding Stellantis in Kragujevac, tyre manufacturers, electrical-equipment producers, chemical companies and agricultural exporters form important parts of Serbia’s export base. This concentration leaves national export performance sensitive to disruptions affecting individual operations, changes in European demand and investment decisions by large industrial companies.
Energy-intensive exporters also face increasing exposure to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), carbon-reporting requirements and the cost of obtaining verifiable low-carbon electricity.
Foreign investment flows show a more mixed picture
Foreign direct investment produced contrasting results during the first part of 2026. Gross inflows amounted to approximately €369 million in the first quarter, around half the level recorded during the same period a year earlier. Net FDI, however, reached approximately €596 million during the first five months, representing a 36% year-on-year increase. The improvement was partly attributable to lower Serbian investment outflows. The stronger net figure does not eliminate the broader decline in gross investment. Serbia received approximately €3.5 billion of gross FDI in 2025, about 33.5% below the record level recorded in 2024.
New investment shifts toward higher-value activities
Serbia is moving into a more selective investment environment as higher wages and labour shortages reduce the attractiveness of basic labour-intensive manufacturing. New capital is increasingly directed toward mining, mineral processing, energy, logistics, electrical equipment, automated production, ICT and engineering services.
Such projects can raise productivity while generating fewer jobs for each euro invested. Investment-support measures therefore face a changing environment in which domestic supplier integration, technology transfer, research activity, energy efficiency and export quality become increasingly relevant alongside employment creation.
