Serbia’s latest statistical projections point to continued growth in exports and household consumption through the first nine months of 2026, while industrial output is expected to remain only marginally above last year’s level.
Goods exports for January-September are projected to be around 9% higher than in the same period of 2025. Real retail turnover is forecast to increase by approximately 7.5%, extending the consumer growth recorded during the first half of the year. Imports are projected to rise by about 5% over the same period.
Industrial production remains subdued
Industrial activity is expected to record significantly weaker growth than exports and retail trade. The statistical model projects January-September industrial production to be only around 0.5% higher year on year. Within industry, manufacturing output is projected to increase by approximately 1%. The forecast would represent limited improvement from the 0.7% growth in industrial production recorded during the first half of 2026.
The projections therefore maintain the divergence visible in Serbia’s second-quarter economic data, with exports, consumer demand, wages and services expanding alongside selected industrial segments such as automotive production.
Growth remains concentrated across economic sectors
The projected performance places greater weight on services, household consumption and export-oriented industries than on broad-based industrial expansion. The January-September projections indicate that Serbia’s economic performance is being shaped by stronger external trade and domestic demand while aggregate industrial production continues to record comparatively limited growth.
