Serbia’s property market recorded its highest quarterly transaction value on record in the first quarter of 2026, with real estate deals approaching €2 billion as prices increased faster than the number of completed transactions. The value of transactions was 13.9% higher year on year, while the number of contracts rose by 6.2% to approximately 30,800.
The divergence indicates that the market’s financial expansion is being driven more strongly by higher property values than by an equivalent increase in transaction activity. Rising prices, more expensive new construction and greater concentration in premium urban locations are contributing to the increase.
Belgrade remains the main centre of property demand
Belgrade continues to account for the largest share of Serbia’s property market. Demand is supported by the concentration of employment, internal migration, foreign residents, professional services and continued development of higher-priced residential projects.
Novi Sad benefits from its university sector, technology industry and geographical proximity to Central European markets. Niš and Kragujevac are supported by industrial, logistics and infrastructure investment.
Lower mortgage rates have also expanded the pool of bank-financed buyers. The average interest rate on new housing loans declined to approximately 4.5% by June 2026, providing some relief as property prices continued to rise. Cash purchases nevertheless remain an important component of the market. Real estate continues to serve as a store of value for household savings and private capital, partly because Serbia has a relatively shallow domestic equity market and a limited number of accessible long-term investment products.
Market activity becomes increasingly divided by location
The strong national transaction figures mask increasingly different conditions between individual locations and projects. Apartments in established Belgrade neighbourhoods, well-connected parts of Novi Sad and strong regional centres can maintain high occupancy and relatively strong resale liquidity.
Peripheral developments without adequate transport connections, schools, utilities or access to employment centres face a more difficult absorption environment. Developers are also dealing with higher costs for construction materials, land, labour and financing. Rising selling prices therefore do not necessarily translate into wider development margins. Permit delays, grid connections, utility infrastructure and the mobilisation of contractors can add substantially to total project costs and affect the timing of returns.
Smaller residential units remain the strongest segment
Compact residential properties continue to represent the strongest part of the market, targeting owner-occupiers, students, professionals and long-term rental demand. Larger premium apartments depend on a narrower pool of potential buyers. Despite high asking prices, these properties can therefore remain available for longer periods. The importance of cash purchases also makes conventional affordability measures less comprehensive as a measure of overall market demand. Property’s role as a savings and capital-preservation asset supports transactions independently of mortgage financing conditions.
Expo 2027 creates a new test for property values
The next major test for the market will come after the peak of Expo 2027 construction activity. Belgrade is currently benefiting from substantial infrastructure expenditure, temporary demand for labour and expectations of increased tourism and commercial activity.
Properties whose value is supported by permanent improvements in transport and urban infrastructure should retain stronger underlying fundamentals. Projects whose pricing depends primarily on short-term expectations surrounding Expo activity will face a more demanding environment as the investment cycle slows and the market moves beyond the peak of construction spending.
