Serbia recorded 3.8% GDP growth in the second quarter, one of its strongest quarterly performances since 2024, while economic confidence weakened across businesses and households.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 92.6, down from 95.3 in the first quarter. The reading remained below the long-term benchmark of 100 and was only slightly above the 2020 average of 92.2. It was also more than 20 points below the 2019 average.
Confidence weakened across all surveyed sectors
The deterioration was broad-based, with sentiment declining in every sector covered by the indicator.
Consumer confidence decreased by 2.7 points from the previous quarter, while confidence in services fell by 2.2 points. The declines were smaller in construction, at 0.7 points, manufacturing, at 0.4 points, and retail, at 0.1 points. The weaker sentiment came alongside stronger economic activity. GDP growth accelerated to 3.8%, while retail sales increased and construction activity recovered.
Expectations diverge from current economic activity
The movement in confidence indicates a more cautious outlook among companies and households despite improvements in several areas of current economic performance. Sentiment indicators can reflect changes in expectations before they become visible in output or investment data. Serbia therefore entered the second half of the year with stronger demand and recovering activity, while expectations among businesses and consumers weakened.
