Serbia strengthened its external trade position during the first half of 2026 as exports expanded at a faster pace than imports, reducing the merchandise trade deficit while total goods exchange reached €39.65 billion, according to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Between January and June, total merchandise trade increased by 5.8% compared with the same period of 2025. Exports rose 8.3% to €17.97 billion, while imports grew 3.7% to €21.68 billion.
- Industrial Supply Chains Continue to Shape Trade
- European Union Remains Serbia’s Main Trading Partner
- Regional Markets Deliver Strong Trade Surplus
- Regional Production Base Differs From Import Concentration
- June Import Growth Accelerates
- Automotive and Copper Lead Export Performance
- Carbon Reporting Gains Importance for Exporters
The stronger export performance reduced the merchandise trade deficit to €3.71 billion, a 14.1% decline year on year. Export coverage of imports improved from 79.4% to 82.9%, reflecting a stronger external trade balance during the reporting period. Based on the reported figures, exports generated approximately €1.38 billion in additional trade revenue compared with the first half of 2025, while imports increased by about €770 million, improving the trade balance by roughly €610 million.
Industrial Supply Chains Continue to Shape Trade
Industrial products remained the foundation of Serbia’s export structure. Intermediate goods accounted for 59.5% of total exports, equivalent to approximately $12.48 billion, highlighting the country’s role in international manufacturing supply chains through exports of components, metals, cables, vehicle parts and processed materials. Consumer goods represented 28% of exports, while equipment accounted for 12.4%, confirming that manufacturing remains concentrated in intermediate stages of European and global production networks.
Imports displayed a similar composition. Intermediate products represented 55.2% of total imports, or nearly $13.95 billion, while consumer goods accounted for 21.1% and equipment 11%. The high proportion of imported intermediate inputs reflects Serbia’s industrial model, in which manufacturers import machinery, specialised components, chemicals, energy products and raw materials before processing or assembling them for export. Because production relies heavily on imported industrial inputs, export expansion can increase imports simultaneously. Against that backdrop, the improvement in export coverage of imports carries particular significance.
European Union Remains Serbia’s Main Trading Partner
The European Union remained Serbia’s largest trading partner during the first six months of 2026, accounting for 58.7% of total merchandise trade, representing approximately €23.3 billion. Although this share was lower than the 63.8% recorded for full-year 2025, Europe continued to dominate Serbia’s external trade through integrated automotive, electrical equipment, machinery, metals and consumer goods supply chains. European-owned companies also maintain a significant presence in Serbia’s manufacturing sector and foreign direct investment.
Serbia’s leading export destinations were Germany, Italy, China, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Hungary, while the largest import partners were China, Germany, Italy, Turkey, and Hungary. China remained Serbia’s largest source of bilateral trade deficit, primarily due to imports of telecommunications equipment. Additional notable deficits were recorded with Kazakhstan, Turkey and Poland. The deficit with Kazakhstan reflected imports of crude oil and other energy commodities, while trade with Turkey was driven by industrial inputs, textiles, machinery and consumer products.
Regional Markets Deliver Strong Trade Surplus
Serbia recorded significant bilateral trade surpluses with Germany, Slovakia and the United Kingdom, with the surplus involving Germany reflecting strong exports of automotive components, machinery, electrical equipment and manufactured goods.
The largest positive balances were nevertheless achieved with neighbouring markets. Serbia maintained substantial trade surpluses with Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, supported by exports of food products, beverages, pharmaceuticals, fuels, electricity, vehicles and electrical equipment. Trade with members of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) generated exports worth €2.37 billion and imports of €782.2 million, resulting in a regional surplus of €1.59 billion. Serbian exports covered imports from CEFTA partners by 303.1%.
Regional demand remained diversified across cereals, processed food, beverages, road vehicles, medicines, electrical machinery and equipment. Montenegro imported Serbian pharmaceutical products and non-alcoholic beverages, while Serbia imported electricity and processed meat products from Montenegro.
Trade with Bosnia and Herzegovina included Serbian exports of gas oils and beer alongside imports of electricity and iron structures. Electricity also appeared on both sides of Serbia’s trade with North Macedonia, together with Serbian exports of electrical conductors and imports of industrial catalysts. The two-way electricity trade reflected Serbia’s participation in the regional electricity market, where trading volumes vary according to hydrological conditions, thermal generation availability, renewable output, demand and cross-border market prices.
Regional Production Base Differs From Import Concentration
Export activity remained geographically diversified across Serbia. Vojvodina generated 29.6% of national exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia with 25.4%, Southern and Eastern Serbia with 23%, and the Belgrade region with 21%. Imports were more concentrated in the capital. Belgrade accounted for 43.3% of total imports, while Vojvodina represented 30.6%, Šumadija and Western Serbia 15.8%, and Southern and Eastern Serbia 8.4%. Part of the imbalance reflects the concentration of importing and distribution companies registered in Belgrade, while manufacturing activity remains more widely distributed across the country.
June Import Growth Accelerates
Trade data for June indicated a faster rise in imports than exports. Monthly exports increased 9% year on year to €3.21 billion, while imports climbed 17.3% to €3.99 billion, producing a monthly trade deficit of approximately €778 million, equivalent to more than one-fifth of the cumulative first-half deficit.
Seasonally adjusted figures showed imports rising 12.7% compared with May, while exports increased 4%.
The largest import product during June was crude oil at $214 million, followed by retail medicines worth $181 million, electricity valued at $82 million, motor vehicle components at $56 million, and natural gas at $47 million. Energy imports continued to influence Serbia’s external balance, industrial production costs and inflation. Future trade performance will also depend on domestic electricity generation, energy prices, refinery operations and the availability of oil and gas supply routes.
Automotive and Copper Lead Export Performance
The strongest export products in June reflected both manufacturing and mining activity. Wiring sets for aircraft, vehicles and ships generated exports of $177 million, followed by copper ore and concentrates at $166 million, passenger vehicles at $163 million, refined copper at $149 million, and motor vehicle parts at $94 million.
Copper ore and refined copper underscored the contribution of the mining and metallurgical industry centred around Bor, while vehicle exports and electrical wiring systems reflected activity across the automotive production network centred on Kragujevac and supported by numerous foreign-owned automotive suppliers. Passenger vehicles, automotive components and electrical systems contribute to engineering, logistics and supplier industries, while copper exports remain more exposed to international commodity prices, ownership structures and levels of domestic processing.
Carbon Reporting Gains Importance for Exporters
The dominance of the European market also increases the relevance of environmental compliance for Serbian exporters. Companies exporting iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity to the EU are operating in a market where carbon intensity and verified emissions data increasingly influence market access, pricing and procurement.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) places greater emphasis on plant-level emissions reporting. Producers able to document production volumes, raw material consumption, fuel use, electricity consumption and product-level emissions through credible monitoring, reporting and verification systems will be better positioned to maintain participation in European supply chains. Energy sourcing, guarantees of origin and the verified carbon content of electricity are also becoming increasingly important factors in commercial negotiations, particularly for energy-intensive industries.
During the first half of 2026, Serbia recorded 8.3% export growth, an import coverage ratio of 82.9%, and a 14.1% reduction in the merchandise trade deficit. At the same time, the June acceleration in imports, continued dependence on imported energy and the country’s largest bilateral deficit with China remained defining features of Serbia’s external trade performance as the year progressed.
