Serbia’s automotive industry generated the largest contribution to the country’s improved external trade position in the first five months of 2026, with vehicle exports increasing sharply and the sector’s trade surplus expanding to more than €1 billion.
- Vehicle exports expand through higher production volumes
- Stellantis and supplier network support industrial expansion
- Capital goods surplus reaches €877 million
- Imported inputs remain significant in automotive production
- EU market exposure shapes future automotive performance
- Carbon rules and energy supply become industrial priorities
- Automotive sector reshapes Serbia’s trade structure
Exports of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers reached €2.26 billion between January and May 2026, rising 50.8% from €1.50 billion in the same period a year earlier.
Imports increased by 32.0% to €1.10 billion, but the sector’s surplus widened from €665 million to €1.16 billion.
The automotive surplus increase of approximately €495 million accounted for around 56% of the total €884 million reduction in Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit during the period.
Vehicle exports expand through higher production volumes
Price and volume indicators show that automotive export growth was primarily driven by higher production and shipments rather than price increases.
Automotive export unit values increased by 5.4%, while physical export volumes rose by 42.9%. Import unit values declined by 4.5%, although physical import volumes increased by 37.5%.
The sector’s terms-of-trade index improved by 10.4%.
The figures indicate a significant increase in manufacturing activity, with Serbian factories exporting larger quantities of vehicles and components while also importing higher volumes of parts, equipment and production inputs.
Automotive products represented 15.4% of Serbia’s total goods exports and approximately 17.5% of manufacturing exports during the first five months of 2026.
In May alone, automotive exports reached €432 million, an annual increase of 29.9%, while imports rose 16.4% to €207 million. The monthly automotive trade surplus amounted to €225 million.
Stellantis and supplier network support industrial expansion
The export growth coincides with a new production phase at Stellantis’s Kragujevac plant, where the transition towards electric and hybrid vehicle manufacturing has changed the scale and structure of Serbian automotive output. The production cycle is supported by a wider supplier network, including international component manufacturers operating across central and northern Serbia.
Companies including ZF, Brose, Bosch, Continental, Yanfeng and Minth, together with other Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, have established production capacities covering power electronics, electric drives, braking systems, interior components, wiring systems, sensors and software-related automotive systems. These investments have expanded Serbia’s automotive sector beyond a single assembly operation, although the domestic value-added share continues to differ across product categories.
Capital goods surplus reaches €877 million
The automotive expansion also contributed to a broader improvement in Serbia’s capital-goods trade balance. Capital-goods exports increased by 27.1% to €4.18 billion in January–May 2026, while imports grew by 5.3% to €3.31 billion. The category’s trade surplus expanded to €877 million, compared with €153 million in the same period of 2025.
Automotive manufacturing represented a major share of this improvement, while machinery, fabricated metal products, electrical equipment and computer-related products also contributed to the capital-goods export base. The result reflects a broader industrial structure compared with previous automotive cycles, when production was more concentrated around a smaller number of models and assembly activities.
Imported inputs remain significant in automotive production
Despite the stronger export performance, automotive production continues to rely heavily on imported content. The 37.5% increase in automotive import volumes indicates continued demand for foreign drivetrains, electronic systems, battery-related components, specialised materials and production equipment.
The sector’s export contribution remains significant, but the share of value retained domestically depends on further development of local suppliers. Greater localisation of component production could increase the domestic impact of automotive exports, reduce dependence on cross-border supply chains and strengthen industrial links within Serbia. The next stage of supplier development requires more technically advanced activities, including tooling, embedded electronics, power systems, battery enclosures, thermal management, testing, industrial software and specialised engineering services.
EU market exposure shapes future automotive performance
Serbia’s automotive industry remains closely linked to European vehicle demand, as the European Union continues to represent the destination for nearly two-thirds of Serbian exports. Changes in consumer demand, electric vehicle incentives, fleet-emission regulations and competition from Chinese manufacturers may affect production levels at Serbian automotive facilities.
Manufacturers operating outside the EU also continue to manage customs procedures, rules of origin and product conformity requirements while competing with production sites located within the EU Single Market. Lower production costs remain a factor, but logistics expenses, border procedures and compliance requirements can influence competitiveness.
Carbon rules and energy supply become industrial priorities
Carbon-related requirements are becoming increasingly relevant for automotive supply chains. Although vehicles are not directly included in the initial scope of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, several materials used in vehicle production are affected. Steel and aluminium suppliers face growing requirements to provide verified emissions data, while automotive manufacturers are increasing sustainability requirements across procurement networks.
Serbian component producers that cannot document embedded carbon emissions may face additional commercial challenges as supply-chain standards become stricter.
Energy reliability is another important factor for automotive manufacturing. Modern factories depend on stable electricity supply, automation systems, temperature-controlled processes and digitally integrated production. Industrial power quality, grid reliability, upgraded substations and renewable electricity procurement are becoming increasingly important as automotive production capacity expands.
Automotive sector reshapes Serbia’s trade structure
The foreign-investment-driven automotive sector generated a surplus of €1.16 billion in five months of 2026, while the wider capital-goods category moved into a stronger positive balance. The shift has strengthened Serbia’s external trade position and increased the importance of domestic engineering capacity, supplier development, materials production, testing capabilities and technology-related activities.
The first five months of 2026 marked a period in which automotive manufacturing became the main contributor to Serbia’s goods-trade improvement, with future performance increasingly linked to the depth and resilience of the supplier network supporting the sector.
