Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit declined during the first six months of 2026 as export growth significantly exceeded the increase in imports. Total foreign trade turnover reached €39.65 billion, representing a 5.8% increase compared with the same period in 2025, according to data from the Statistical Office of Serbia.
Exports expanded by 8.3% to €17.97 billion, while imports rose by 3.7% to €21.68 billion. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed to €3.71 billion, down from €4.32 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a reduction of approximately 14.1%. The ratio of exports to imports improved to nearly 83%, indicating a stronger balance in Serbia’s goods trade during a period marked by higher energy costs and increased domestic consumption.
Capital Goods Drive Export Expansion
The strongest improvement came from capital goods, which recorded export growth of 26.1%, reaching €5.17 billion in the first half of 2026. Capital goods increased their share of total merchandise exports from 24.7% to 28.8%, while Serbia’s trade surplus in this category reached approximately €1.05 billion, compared with €265 million during the same period a year earlier.
The growth was supported by machinery, vehicles, electrical equipment and other investment-related products, reflecting the continued integration of Serbian manufacturing facilities into European supply chains and the gradual commissioning of foreign-owned industrial operations. Intermediate goods exports also recorded strong results, increasing by 9.8% to €7.82 billion. Serbia’s surplus in this category improved from €110 million to approximately €347 million, supported by external demand for metals, chemicals, components and semi-finished industrial products.
Energy Remains Major Trade Challenge
Despite stronger industrial exports, energy continued to represent Serbia’s largest structural trade imbalance. Energy exports decreased by 37.4% to €419 million, while energy imports remained close to €2.44 billion. This resulted in an energy deficit exceeding €2.02 billion.
The figures highlight Serbia’s continued reliance on imported crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas, which absorb a significant portion of foreign currency generated through manufacturing exports. The weakness of domestic electricity production during June also increased exposure to regional energy market conditions, particularly during periods of elevated prices.
Consumer Goods Show Mixed Performance
Consumer goods categories recorded weaker export dynamics compared with industrial products. Exports of durable consumer goods declined by 7.1%, while non-durable consumer goods exports also recorded a slight decrease. At the same time, imports of durable consumer goods increased by 10.5%. The data indicate stronger domestic demand but also show the impact of household consumption on Serbia’s import requirements.
Regional Manufacturing Centres Expand Export Role
Regional data showed significant differences in export performance across Serbia. Šumadija and Western Serbia recorded export growth of 30.4%, reaching €4.57 billion, while generating a regional trade surplus of €1.14 billion.
Capital goods exports from the region increased by 72.1%, reflecting the importance of automotive production and equipment manufacturing activities in Kragujevac and other industrial locations. Southern and Eastern Serbia achieved an even larger surplus of €2.31 billion, with exports of €4.14 billion and imports of €1.83 billion.
Intermediate goods exports from the region increased by 18.7%, supported by the role of mining, metals and processing industries, including industrial centres around Bor. Vojvodina recorded weaker results, with exports declining by 1.7% to €5.32 billion. The region’s trade deficit increased to €1.32 billion. Belgrade registered a trade deficit of approximately €5.61 billion, reflecting the concentration of headquarters of distributors, retailers and energy companies in the capital, rather than only the production structure of the city.
June Data Show Stronger Import Growth
Monthly figures for June indicated that the improvement in Serbia’s trade balance remains dependent on continued export performance. Exports increased by 9% year on year to €3.21 billion, while imports grew by 17.3% to €3.99 billion. The monthly trade deficit reached €777.5 million, approximately 71% higher than in June 2025.
Manufactured goods remained the main contributor to export growth. June exports of manufactured products increased by 10.7%, supported by higher shipments of motor vehicles and related equipment. Motor vehicle exports rose by 52.2% to €514 million, while fabricated metal product exports increased by 53.2%. Electrical equipment exports also recorded growth during the month.
The June figures indicate that export gains were concentrated in specific industrial sectors, particularly manufacturing activities linked to vehicles, equipment and industrial production. Growth in imports during the month was partly linked to potential investment activity, including machinery, production equipment and industrial materials, although higher imports of consumer goods, energy and production inputs can also increase pressure on the trade balance.
