Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit declined during the first seven months of 2026 as export growth significantly outpaced imports, with vehicle shipments accounting for much of the improvement.
Exports increased 8.8% to €21.09 billion, while imports rose 4.4% to €25.50 billion, according to the September edition of the Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends bulletin. The trade deficit narrowed by €635.7 million, or 12.6%, to €4.41 billion. Export coverage of imports improved to 82.7%, compared with 79.4% a year earlier.
Manufacturing Leads Export Growth
Manufactured goods represented 88% of Serbia’s total exports and increased 9.3% during the period. Mining exports recorded stronger growth of 31.3%, while combined exports of electricity and agricultural products declined by €280.3 million, or 24.2%.
The automotive sector provided the largest contribution to manufacturing export growth. Vehicle and trailer exports reached €3.25 billion, rising by almost €1.09 billion. That increase represented more than two-thirds of the overall rise in manufacturing exports, reinforcing the importance of vehicle production to Serbia’s external trade performance.
Italy Trade Balance Moves Into Surplus
The stronger vehicle exports contributed to a significant change in Serbia’s trade position with Italy. Serbia recorded a €105.2 million trade surplus with Italy, compared with a €408.2 million deficit during the same period of 2025. Italy’s share of Serbia’s total trade increased to 7.8%, from 6.5%. Serbia also increased its trade surplus with Bosnia and Herzegovina by 78.9% to €699.1 million. Elsewhere in the region, however, the trade position weakened. Serbia moved from a €150.3 million surplus with Romania to a €265.1 million deficit, while trade surpluses with Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro narrowed.
EU Remains Serbia’s Main Trading Market
The European Union accounted for 58.6% of Serbia’s total goods trade, maintaining its position as the country’s dominant trading partner.
Germany remained Serbia’s largest individual trading partner, representing 13.1% of total trade, followed by China at 11.1%. Despite the narrower trade deficit, export growth stabilised at around €3 billion per month between May and July, after increasing more rapidly earlier in the year. The improvement in Serbia’s trade balance remains closely connected to the performance of the automotive industry, particularly the continued export momentum from Kragujevac, against the backdrop of weaker industrial demand across Europe.
