Serbia’s Food Trade Surplus Narrows as Agricultural Export Volumes Decline

Serbia’s agriculture and food trade balance weakened in the first five months of 2026, as lower primary-sector export volumes and stronger food imports reduced one of the country’s traditional external surpluses. Exports from agriculture, forestry and fisheries declined by 19.0% in euro terms within the representative foreign-trade basket. Physical export volumes fell by 15.8%, while export unit values decreased by 3.8%. Imports in the same category declined by 7.8%, driven by a 4.2% reduction in physical volume and a 3.8% decrease in unit values.

The relationship between export value and volume indicates that the weaker performance was mainly linked to lower quantities exported rather than only changes in prices. Serbia shipped fewer agricultural products abroad while receiving slightly lower average prices.

Food manufacturing maintains export value but surplus declines

Food manufacturing showed greater resilience in nominal terms, although export volumes also weakened.

Export unit values increased by 7.2%, offsetting a 6.5% decline in physical export volumes, leaving export value broadly unchanged. Complete customs data show that food-product exports reached €1.23 billion, almost unchanged from the previous year. Imports increased by 5.7% to €1.01 billion, reducing the food-manufacturing trade surplus from €269 million to €214 million. The wider food-and-live-animals category recorded a 4.3% decline in export value. Export unit values increased by 4.9%, but physical volumes declined by 8.8%.

Imports moved in the opposite direction, with import value rising by 3.6%, physical volume increasing by 7.0%, and average import unit values declining by 3.2%.

Agricultural exports face volume pressure

The data show that Serbian food exporters faced weaker export availability or competitiveness in physical terms while domestic buyers accessed larger volumes of imported food products at lower average prices. Higher prices for remaining exports limited the decline in nominal revenues but did not prevent the reduction of the trade surplus.

The statistical data do not identify the reasons behind lower agricultural export volumes. Possible influences include crop cycles, weather conditions, inventory changes, domestic consumption trends, commodity-market movements and company-level procurement decisions. The available figures indicate that the deterioration was primarily related to physical volumes rather than currency movements or export pricing alone.

Oilseed and beverage segments show mixed trends

Vegetable and animal oils followed a similar pattern. Export value declined by 8.3%, as a 6.1% increase in unit values was outweighed by a 13.5% reduction in physical export volume. Import volumes increased by 12.5%, while import unit values decreased by 2.4%. The development affects Serbia’s oilseed and edible-oil value chain, connecting agricultural production with crushing facilities, refining operations, animal feed production and food manufacturing.

Lower exportable volumes can influence plant utilisation and working-capital requirements across the sector, even when export prices remain relatively favourable. The beverage segment recorded stronger results. Exports increased by 5.6% to €203 million, while imports rose by 2.4% to €83 million. The beverage trade surplus expanded from €112 million to €121 million. Physical beverage export volumes grew by 3.5%, although export unit values declined slightly.

Tobacco exports decline as imports increase

Tobacco products recorded weaker external trade performance. Exports declined by 16.2% to €217 million, while imports increased by 18.0% to €122 million. The tobacco trade surplus narrowed from €155 million to €95 million. The different performance across food categories highlights the varying exposure of Serbian agricultural businesses to production cycles, commodity markets, processing capacity and export-market conditions.

Integrated producers manage broader supply-chain risks

The distinction between primary agriculture and processed food remains significant for the sector. Food manufacturers can adjust product portfolios, packaging, branding and destination markets, while primary agricultural exports are more directly influenced by harvest volumes, storage capacity and international commodity prices.

Large agricultural and food groups including MK Group, Delta Agrar and Matijević, together with other integrated companies, operate across multiple stages of the value chain. Their activities cover agricultural production, procurement, processing, logistics, retail demand and export-market access. Businesses with storage capacity, irrigation systems, diversified sourcing and multiple processing operations have greater ability to manage fluctuations in agricultural output.

Regional markets remain important for Serbian food exporters

The decline in agricultural and food exports also affects Serbia’s position in regional trade. Neighbouring markets including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia remain important destinations for Serbian food and consumer products. Serbia continued to record a substantial trade surplus with regional partners, although total exports to Bosnia and Herzegovina declined by 5.1%, exports to Montenegro decreased by 5.0%, and shipments to Bulgaria fell by 13.8%.

The country-level figures cover all traded goods, but they indicate a weaker environment in several markets where Serbian food producers have established positions. The European Union remains a major structural market opportunity but also requires compliance with stricter standards covering sanitary controls, traceability, pesticide residues, packaging and sustainability requirements. For smaller producers, certification and compliance costs can represent a significant burden, particularly when export volumes decline and fixed expenses must be distributed across fewer shipments.

Working capital and production capacity remain key challenges

Changes in agricultural trade performance can also influence domestic market conditions. A decline in exports caused by weaker foreign demand may increase domestic availability, while lower production caused by reduced harvests may tighten local supply despite falling exports. The trade data alone do not distinguish between these scenarios, making production, inventory and retail-price indicators important for monitoring developments during the remainder of 2026.

Agriculture also remains dependent on seasonal financing. Production requires working capital before revenues are generated, while irrigation, storage infrastructure, input costs and delayed customer payments can affect liquidity. Financial institutions and insurers are increasingly required to assess businesses based on crop-risk management, operational resilience and documented production controls. The reduction of the food-manufacturing surplus from €269 million to €214 million remains limited in scale, but the direction is significant because agriculture and food exports have traditionally helped offset Serbia’s deficits in areas such as energy, pharmaceuticals and technology.

Serbia continues to have agricultural resources, processing capacity and access to regional markets, while the immediate challenge remains converting this base into stable exportable volumes through stronger production, storage, irrigation and processing efficiency.