Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed in the first eight months of 2026 as export growth outpaced imports, with stronger shipments of capital and intermediate goods supporting the improvement. Goods exports totalled EUR 23.7 billion, an increase of 8.8% year on year, while imports grew by 4.6% to EUR 28.8 billion.
The trade deficit consequently declined to EUR 5.1 billion. Export coverage of imports improved to 82.3%, compared with 79.1% in the same period a year earlier.
Capital and Intermediate Goods Lead Export Expansion
The structure of export growth showed a stronger contribution from higher-value industrial categories. Capital-goods exports increased by 27.2%, adding EUR 1.44 billion to the total, and accounted for a substantial share of the overall increase.
Intermediate-goods exports rose by 9.4%, contributing a further EUR 885 million. The expansion of both categories points to a larger contribution from products used in investment and industrial production.
The gains were unevenly distributed across manufacturing. Motor vehicles and trailers generated approximately two-thirds of the increase in manufacturing exports, making the automotive industry the dominant contributor to the sector’s export expansion.
Automotive Shipments Reshape Bilateral Trade
Automotive exports also played a significant role in Serbia’s trade balance with Italy, helping the country move from a deficit to a surplus in bilateral merchandise trade.
The vehicle industry represents an important source of export revenue and includes products with greater technological complexity than many traditional export categories. At the same time, its large contribution to manufacturing growth increases the exposure of national trade performance to changes in the production cycle of a relatively narrow group of industrial facilities.
Export Momentum Weakens in Several Other Sectors
MAT has reported that the trend value of Serbian exports has edged lower since June, despite continued strong year-on-year growth in the cumulative figures.
Weaker export performance has been recorded in electricity and petroleum products, as well as clothing, leather and other transport equipment. Basic metals are also facing new trade restrictions in the European Union.
External industrial conditions present an additional challenge. Germany, Serbia’s largest trading partner, is experiencing industrial weakness, affecting the environment for Serbian exporters supplying the market. The improvement in Serbia’s trade position therefore reflects both stronger exports in selected industrial categories and slower growth in imports, while the contribution from several other export sectors remains weaker.
