Serbia recorded a EUR 61.7 million trade surplus with Italy in the first eight months of 2026, reversing a EUR 448.5 million deficit in the same period a year earlier. The approximately EUR 510 million turnaround reflects a sharp increase in automotive exports following the start of electric Fiat Grande Panda production in Kragujevac.
The expansion of vehicle shipments has changed the structure of bilateral trade, with Italy’s share of Serbia’s total merchandise trade rising from 6.4% to 7.5%. Italy, alongside Germany, is among the leading destinations for Serbian motor-vehicle exports.
Kragujevac Plant Reshapes Automotive Exports
Production of the electric Fiat Grande Panda in Kragujevac has become the single largest contributor to growth in Serbian manufacturing and exports.
The increase in shipments has had a direct effect on bilateral trade figures, reversing Serbia’s previous deficit with Italy. The development illustrates how the launch and expansion of a major export-oriented industrial facility can influence national trade statistics and the composition of merchandise flows.
Industrial Investment Extends Beyond Vehicle Exports
The economic impact of an export-oriented automotive plant extends beyond employment and finished-vehicle shipments. Production requires imported components, creates demand for domestic suppliers and affects freight movements, electricity consumption and wider trade flows.
The extent of the long-term economic contribution also depends on how much value is generated within Serbia. Greater participation by local companies in supplying components, engineering, services and other production inputs would increase the domestic content of exported vehicles. Higher local value creation could also strengthen the plant’s contribution to the current account and tax revenues.
Domestic Supply Chain Development Remains a Key Factor
The shift in Serbia’s trade balance with Italy does not, by itself, demonstrate a broad improvement in competitiveness across Serbian industry relative to Italian producers. The change has been driven primarily by a substantial increase in one product category: motor vehicles.
The longer-term impact will depend on the ability of Serbian companies to expand their role around the final assembly operation and move further up the automotive supply chain.
The Kragujevac facility has established Serbia as a production and export location for an electric vehicle. The extent to which this investment generates a wider industrial base will depend on the development of domestic suppliers, engineering capabilities, services and component production. Without a broader local supply network, the improvement in bilateral trade could remain heavily dependent on the performance of a single vehicle model and one European automotive market.
