Serbia completed approximately 234,000 apartments, compared with around 153,000 recorded sales of newly built homes, creating an estimated gap of 81,000 units, according to economic research.
The difference represents approximately 5.7 million square metres of housing. The estimated construction investment associated with this gap is €5.12 billion, based on development costs of around €910 per square metre.
The figures do not prove that 81,000 completed apartments remain unsold. Construction completions and registered transactions measure different activities, while presales, ownership transfers and properties retained by developers or landowners complicate the comparison.
Construction outpaces recorded sales
Annual apartment completions increased from approximately 18,000 to 36,390. The estimated difference between completions and recorded sales equals almost 35% of total construction during the period examined.
The imbalance is particularly visible in Belgrade, where around 33,000 apartments were completed, compared with approximately 20,000 recorded new-home sales. Novi Sad has also experienced substantial residential development.
Demand varies between locations and property categories. Smaller apartments in established urban areas may continue attracting buyers, while expensive properties and peripheral developments could take longer to sell. The €5.12 billion estimate represents indicative construction costs associated with the statistical gap, not an audited valuation of unsold properties. Actual development expenditure depends on land prices, construction specifications, infrastructure, materials and financing costs.
Developer financing and banking exposure
Residential projects are typically financed through shareholder capital, landowner contributions, buyer deposits, presales and bank loans. Developers relying heavily on borrowing are more exposed to interest expenses, repayment deadlines and slower sales if completed properties remain in their portfolios.
Potential consequences include weaker cash flow, delayed loan repayments and reduced investment in new projects. The financial impact depends on individual developers’ leverage, liquidity and contractual arrangements.
According to the Republic Geodetic Authority (RGA), approximately 33% of apartment purchase contracts involved credit financing, up three percentage points year-on-year. Across all property categories, credit financing accounted for around 14% of contracts. These figures concern buyers’ financing rather than direct bank lending to developers. Assessing banking-sector exposure would require information on construction loans, collateral valuations, presales and financing concentration among major property groups.
Property transactions remain strong
Serbia’s property transactions reached €4.2 billion, increasing 10.1% year-on-year. The number of registered contracts rose 0.2% to 61,343.
Apartments accounted for approximately €2.5 billion, or 61% of total transaction value. Their transaction value increased 11.4%, despite a 1.9% decline in the number of apartment contracts. Meanwhile, building permits covered approximately 53,000 apartments across 4,500 buildings, with more than half of the planned units located in Belgrade. Permitted projects do not necessarily proceed to construction, as some may be delayed, modified or abandoned.
Vacant housing and financing allegations
Serbia’s census recorded approximately 3.61 million dwellings, including around 634,000 temporarily unoccupied or abandoned properties. This category also includes seasonal homes, properties undergoing renovation and dwellings awaiting occupation, so it cannot be equated with unsold developer inventory.
The research additionally alleges that some residential development may have been financed with profits linked to corruption in public infrastructure projects. These claims have not been established by housing statistics. Verification would require examining company accounts, beneficial ownership, public procurement records, related-party transactions and sources of investment capital.
The analysis highlights a gap in Serbia’s property-market data: official statistics track construction, prices, transactions and mortgage financing but do not provide a comprehensive measure of completed apartments still held by developers. More detailed information on inventory, presales, ownership, financing and occupancy would help investors, banks and policymakers assess the sector’s exposure.
