Serbia’s merchandise exports strengthened significantly in the first half of 2026, led by automotive production, metals and a broader manufacturing base serving European markets. Goods exports reached €18.0 billion in the first six months, up 8.3% year on year, while imports increased 3.7%. The stronger export performance has improved Serbia’s external trade balance. For full-year 2025, goods exports totalled €33.1 billion, an 8.4% increase, compared with imports of €41.9 billion. In the first half of 2026, export coverage rose to 82.9%, while the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 14.1%. The composition of exports points to an increasingly diversified manufacturing platform, with transport equipment representing the fastest-moving segment.
- Automotive production leads the manufacturing expansion
- Mining and pharmaceuticals add scale to the export base
- EU markets absorb most Serbian exports
- CEFTA generates a substantial trade surplus
- Large foreign-owned plants influence national trade figures
- Domestic suppliers remain a key industrial development issue
- Export growth remains exposed to external demand and imported inputs
Automotive production leads the manufacturing expansion
Machinery and transport equipment accounted for 32.6% of merchandise exports in the first half of 2026. Within that category, road-vehicle exports more than doubled in dollar terms, while motor-vehicle manufacturing generated a $1.65 billion sector surplus.
The timing coincides with the production ramp-up of Stellantis’s electric Grande Panda in Kragujevac, although customs statistics do not attribute the overall change to a specific factory.
The automotive base extends well beyond Stellantis. Companies including Bosch, ZF, Brose, Continental, Yazaki, Johnson Electric, Michelin and Toyo Tires operate within Serbia’s vehicle, components and tyre manufacturing network. Other industrial categories also contributed to export growth, including electrical equipment, rubber and plastics, basic metals and food products.
Mining and pharmaceuticals add scale to the export base
Metals and mining form a second major pillar of Serbia’s industrial exports. Zijin’s Serbian operations produced 296,000 tonnes of copper and 9.1 tonnes of gold in 2025, while HBIS Serbia remains a major steel producer. The export base also includes food, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Hemofarm reported a 62% increase in exports in 2025, adding to the range of products manufactured in Serbia for international markets.
Many of these companies are part of multinational groups that distribute production and orders across several countries. Their presence gives Serbian factories access to international customers, production standards and established supply networks. The expansion of these industries has increased Serbia’s role as a manufacturing and export platform, while the degree to which local companies participate in those supply chains remains an important feature of the industrial structure.
EU markets absorb most Serbian exports
The European Union accounted for 63.1% of Serbia’s exports in the first half of 2026. Germany was the largest individual destination, receiving 15.1%, followed by Italy with 8.6%. Other significant markets included China at 5.6%, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 5.4%, Hungary at 4.5%, Czechia at 3.9% and Montenegro at 3.8%. The export structure reflects two distinct market advantages. EU countries provide access to integrated manufacturing supply chains, while regional markets provide established distribution channels for Serbian food, consumer products, machinery and metals.
CEFTA generates a substantial trade surplus
Trade with the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) market produced a particularly large surplus during the first half of 2026. Serbia exported €2.37 billion to CEFTA members while importing €782 million, generating a surplus of approximately €1.59 billion. Export coverage exceeded 300%.
Germany and Italy provide major industrial demand, while Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia contribute significant regional markets. China occupies a different position in Serbia’s export structure. It represents an important destination for metal ores and related output, but its demand has not developed into a broad replacement for the European market.
Large foreign-owned plants influence national trade figures
There is no current official company-level ranking of exporter market shares. The latest widely cited ranking, based on 2023 data, placed Zijin Mining Serbia, Zijin Copper and HBIS Serbia at the top, with exports of approximately €1.15 billion, €746 million and €549 million, respectively. Those figures should not be treated as a 2026 ranking because the expansion of vehicle production has subsequently changed the composition of Serbia’s exports. They nevertheless demonstrate the influence that a relatively small number of very large, frequently foreign-owned industrial facilities can have on national trade statistics.
Foreign ownership brings capital, established quality systems, international distribution networks and access to customers. At the same time, factories that import machinery, electronics and specialised components, receive group financing and transfer part of their earnings abroad can generate less domestic value than their gross export figures indicate. Serbia’s free zones illustrate this structure, with imports of components and other inputs increasing alongside exports of finished products.
Domestic suppliers remain a key industrial development issue
Serbian companies have stronger positions in agrifood, packaging, furniture, software-enabled engineering and selected industrial niches, but generally operate at a smaller scale than multinational manufacturers. The next stage of industrial development therefore involves strengthening local suppliers through certification financing, engineering skills, reliable energy and logistics infrastructure, as well as contracts that allow Serbian companies to progress from maintenance and basic component production into design, tooling and proprietary products. Investment incentives based solely on employment numbers would not address these supply-chain requirements.
Export growth remains exposed to external demand and imported inputs
The improvement in Serbia’s trade balance does not remove the exposure of its export platform to several external factors. Weakness in European economies can quickly affect orders from manufacturing customers, while imported energy and technology inputs leave producers exposed to exchange-rate movements and supply disruptions. Large vehicle and metals shipments can also increase headline export values without producing the same increase in domestic value added, margins or tax revenue.
A broader assessment of export performance therefore includes domestic value added, local procurement, research and development employment and the number of Serbian suppliers securing contracts beyond the multinational plants operating in the country. Serbian manufacturing now spans electric vehicles, tyres, copper, steel, pharmaceuticals, electrical systems and food products, while the EU remains the dominant external market. The development of domestic suppliers and higher-value industrial capabilities will determine how much of the value generated by that export base remains within the Serbian economy.
