Serbia’s merchandise exports increased 8.8% year on year to €21.09 billion in January-July 2026, outpacing import growth and contributing to a substantial reduction in the country’s trade deficit.
Imports rose 4.4% to €25.50 billion over the same period, bringing the merchandise trade deficit down 12.6% to €4.41 billion. Export coverage of imports consequently increased to 82.7%, compared with 79.4% a year earlier. Countries in the European Union accounted for 58.6% of Serbia’s total merchandise trade, despite weak demand in several major European markets.
Manufacturing and mining support export growth
The export performance reflects increased output from industrial capacity established through previous investment cycles, with several major manufacturing operations moving into higher-production phases.
Automotive manufacturing has been an important contributor, supported by new production in Kragujevac and expanding operations among suppliers. Mining and copper exports have also made a significant contribution to the growth in goods exports.
The National Bank of Serbia identified manufacturing, automotive-related industries and copper ore among the main sources of export growth during the first half of 2026. Goods and services exports also expanded faster than imports, contributing to a reduction in the current-account deficit. Serbia’s trade structure has historically combined substantial foreign investment with a persistent merchandise deficit, partly reflecting imports of equipment, intermediate goods and consumer products. The 2026 figures show a different pattern as newly established industrial capacity increasingly contributes to export production.
CEFTA trade provides regional surplus
Serbia also maintained a substantial merchandise trade surplus with neighbouring CEFTA economies. Exports to CEFTA markets reached approximately €2.82 billion in January-July, while imports stood at about €909 million. This resulted in a surplus of roughly €1.91 billion. The figures leave Serbian companies operating across two significant export markets. The EU remains the main destination for industrial products, while Western Balkan markets provide a regional outlet supported by established distribution networks.
Export concentration remains a structural factor
A significant share of recent export growth is linked to automotive production, copper and a relatively limited group of large foreign-owned manufacturers. As a result, changes in production at a major industrial facility or renewed weakness in European industrial markets could have a direct effect on overall export performance. Germany and Italy, among other European markets, are specifically identified as areas where weaker demand could affect Serbia’s trade results.
The composition of exports also affects the amount of economic value retained domestically. Manufactured goods can incorporate imported components, machinery, technology licences and other intermediate inputs, meaning that the full value of an exported product does not remain in Serbia.
Supplier localisation becomes a key industrial issue
Further development of Serbia’s export base therefore involves increasing the role of domestic suppliers across the industrial production chain. Areas including tooling, castings, electronics, plastics, engineering, maintenance, software, testing, logistics and industrial services represent potential extensions of existing manufacturing operations beyond assembly activities. The latest export figures reflect the production effects of investment made during the previous decade, with established factories now contributing more significantly to Serbia’s merchandise exports.
