Serbia’s retail prices have remained below their pre-regulation levels several months after temporary limits on retail margins expired, with about 75% of products covered by the measure still cheaper than before the restrictions were introduced, according to the National Bank of Serbia. The margin regulation was in force from September 2025 through February 2026. Prices across the regulated product basket declined 5.2% while the measure was active and fell by a further 1.1% during the five months after its expiration. The data show that the removal of the restrictions did not result in a broad return to the price levels recorded before the intervention.
Food prices remain below pre-regulation levels
The NBS separately examined food prices excluding fruit and vegetables because of their greater volatility. These prices declined 4.3% while the regulation was in effect and increased only 1.0% through July after its expiration. As a result, food prices excluding fruit and vegetables remained below their pre-regulation level despite retailers having greater freedom to determine margins. Between August 2025 and July 2026, prices for pasta and cereals declined 10.3%, while sugar and chocolate fell 9.0%. Fresh meat was 8.6% cheaper, and prices for other food products decreased 9.1%.
Fruit prices dropped 20.1% over the same period, while vegetables declined 16.1%. Non-food products included in the regulation were 2.4% cheaper. Bread and flour were among the exceptions, with prices increasing by about 3.0%, while soft drinks became approximately 0.5% more expensive.
Lower food prices reinforce disinflation
The changes in regulated-product prices have contributed to Serbia’s broader inflation performance. After the margin regulation expired in March, the year-on-year decline in prices of industrially processed food products more than doubled, increasing from 1.2% to 2.7% by July. Their negative contribution to headline inflation consequently increased from 0.3 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points.
Headline inflation fell to 1.9% in July, below the NBS’s earlier forecast. Food prices have therefore provided a significant disinflationary contribution while energy and service prices remain under pressure. The price developments also create a substantial statistical base effect for the coming months. Because the restrictions introduced in September 2025 lowered the comparison base, annual inflation is expected to rise sharply from September 2026 even without an equivalent monthly increase in prices.
The NBS projects headline inflation at slightly above 4%, partly because of this base effect. Consequently, a higher annual inflation rate may occur even if many products previously covered by the regulation remain relatively stable in monthly terms.
Trading rules replace direct margin controls
Serbia is moving away from direct retail-margin restrictions toward legislation governing commercial practices. A new Law on Trading Practices for Certain Types of Products, aligned with EU rules, entered into force together with amendments to trade and consumer-protection legislation. The Competition Commission is responsible for implementing the framework and has identified 14 trading practices on a statutory blacklist. The rules are intended to address the use of bargaining power by large retail chains, particularly in dealings with agricultural and food producers.
Additional amendments introduce requirements concerning the real-time publication of price lists and tighten rules governing promotions and the definition of a “previous price”. The NBS expects the combined measures to strengthen competition, improve price transparency and consumer protection, and indirectly support domestic price stability.
New framework targets supply-chain bargaining practices
The new regulatory approach addresses commercial relationships within the food supply chain rather than directly setting final retail prices. The NBS has previously identified an uneven market position between food producers and retailers. The new legislation is intended to address that imbalance without permanently determining consumer prices. For food producers, the framework could affect commercial practices including payment terms, listing fees, promotional arrangements and supplier margins. The effectiveness of the rules will therefore depend on developments across the broader relationship between producers and retailers.
The NBS data do not quantify the individual contribution of factors such as retail competition, supplier pricing, input costs or regulatory scrutiny to the continued decline in regulated-product prices. The data instead show that the removal of the margin restrictions did not produce a uniform return to August 2025 price levels. The retail-price regime has consequently moved from temporary administrative restrictions to a legal framework governing trading conduct, while a large majority of previously regulated products remain below their pre-regulation prices.
