The future ownership of Serbia’s NIS remains unsettled as conflicting accounts emerge over negotiations between Russia’s Gazprom Neft and Hungary’s MOL, while U.S. sanctions exemptions continue to keep the oil company operating. N1, citing Forbes Serbia, reported that a source close to the Serbian side considers the negotiations to have practically failed and questioned whether the Russian shareholder intends to proceed with a sale.
Serbia’s government has rejected that assessment. Energy Minister said there was no information that negotiations had collapsed, pointing to the latest decision by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing MOL to continue talks. MOL has likewise said the process remains ongoing, without providing details about the substance of the discussions or the issues preventing an agreement.
OFAC extends operating and negotiating permissions
OFAC has extended NIS’s operating licence, allowing the company to continue refining crude, importing oil, carrying out transactions required for security of supply and settling financial obligations. A parallel authorisation allows MOL to continue negotiations over the Russian-controlled 56.15% stake until the same date.
The extensions enable continued operations at the Pančevo refinery and support fuel supplies to the Serbian market, but do not settle the underlying ownership issue. Serbia and MOL have already established much of the framework that would apply if the Hungarian company takes control of NIS. In June, the two sides signed a shareholder agreement covering future governance, continued operation of the Pančevo refinery and security of supply. Serbia would also have the option to increase its NIS ownership by an additional 5 percentage points. Those arrangements would take effect only if MOL and Gazprom Neft reach a sale agreement and the transaction obtains the required regulatory approvals, including U.S. approval.
Gazprom Neft remains central to ownership negotiations
The Russian ownership structure remains a key element of the transaction. Gazprom Neft owns 44.85% of NIS, while a further 11.3% is held through Intelligence, a company managed by Gazprom Capital. The Serbian state owns 29.87%. Forbes Serbia’s reporting has raised the possibility that the Russian shareholder may have limited incentive to accelerate a sale while NIS continues operating under temporary U.S. exemptions. That interpretation has not been confirmed as an official Russian position.
Gazprom Neft has not publicly announced that it has ended the transaction process, and MOL remains authorised by OFAC to negotiate. The lack of a completed sale nevertheless leaves NIS facing recurring sanctions-related uncertainty, with operations continuing under successive U.S. licence deadlines.
Serbia faces direct exposure through NIS
The interests of the parties involved differ. For MOL, a completed acquisition would provide access to Serbia’s only refinery, a substantial retail network and a strategic position linking its Central European refining and logistics operations with the Western Balkans. Gazprom Neft would give up a strategic energy asset in a market where Russia has maintained a significant presence.
Serbia faces the most direct security-of-supply exposure if the ownership issue remains unresolved. NIS operates the country’s only refinery, while also holding oil and gas exploration and production assets and a large network of filling stations. Any disruption affecting crude imports or refinery operations could therefore extend to transport, agriculture, construction and industry. The Serbian government has consequently favoured negotiated restructuring of NIS ownership rather than an abrupt change resulting from sanctions pressure.
New oil infrastructure will not resolve immediate ownership issue
Repeated OFAC extensions have prevented the sanctions dispute from immediately disrupting fuel supplies while giving MOL and Gazprom Neft additional time to negotiate. At the same time, the recurring deadlines leave Serbia dependent on authorisations issued outside the country. The issue becomes particularly significant as winter approaches, when energy security and logistics requirements increase.
Serbia and Hungary are developing plans for a new oil pipeline intended to connect Serbia more directly with the wider Central European system. The planned infrastructure could reduce some exposure to existing supply constraints but does not address the immediate ownership dispute at NIS.
October 30 deadline approaches
The OFAC deadline will determine how much additional time is available for the current negotiating process. A signed agreement between MOL and Gazprom Neft would move the process towards regulatory approvals, financing, integration and arrangements involving MOL and the Serbian state.
If another extension is granted without a completed transaction, questions over the progress of the negotiations would remain. If the reported breakdown is confirmed, Serbia could also face consideration of alternatives including another buyer or a larger state ownership role. No such outcome has been formally announced. For now, the latest U.S. authorisations allow NIS operations and the MOL-Gazprom Neft negotiations to continue, while the company’s long-term ownership remains unresolved.
