Serbia recorded faster growth in goods exports and stronger household purchasing power in 2026, while foreign direct investment covered only part of the country’s current-account deficit, according to the Serbian Ministry of Finance’s basic macroeconomic indicators table.
Goods exports rose 8.8% to €21.09 billion, twice the rate of import growth. At the same time, lower inflation supported increases in real wages and pensions, while bank lending expanded more quickly to households than to companies. The investment figures were less favourable. Net foreign direct investment reached €840.2 million in the first half of 2026, covering about 60.3% of the €1.39 billion current-account deficit. The data compiled by the ministry draw on figures from the national statistical office, central bank, employment agency and pension fund.
Goods trade strengthens
Serbia exported €21.09 billion of goods in the first seven months, compared with €25.50 billion of imports. The resulting merchandise trade deficit was €4.41 billion. Imports increased 4.4%, meaning exports covered 82.7% of the import bill.
Using the published rounded growth rates to reconstruct the comparable 2025 period indicates that the merchandise deficit narrowed by approximately 12.5%, from about €5.04 billion. Import coverage increased from an estimated 79.4%, or by roughly 3.3 percentage points.
Both exports and imports increased, so the narrower deficit was not caused by falling imports. The source reports nominal euro values and does not separate price changes from physical volumes, meaning the figures alone do not establish the scale of the underlying production recovery. The European Union remained Serbia’s main export market, purchasing €13.31 billion of goods, equivalent to 63.1% of total exports. The source provides no sector or company-level breakdown of exports, so the available figures do not show whether the increase was broadly distributed across manufacturing or concentrated among particular products and producers.
Investment and external financing
The latest trade performance comes against a weaker foreign-investment backdrop. Serbia’s €840.2 million in net FDI during January–June covered approximately 60.3% of the €1.39 billion current-account deficit, leaving a difference of about €553.8 million. Net FDI alone does not represent the entire financing of a balance-of-payments deficit, as other financial flows and reserve transactions also form part of the external accounts. The figures nevertheless show that direct investment did not cover the full current-account shortfall during the first half.
Annual net FDI fell to €2.28 billion in 2025, from €4.60 billion in 2024, a decline of approximately 50.5%. Over the same period, the current-account deficit widened to €4.30 billion, from €3.79 billion. Net FDI covered about 53% of the external deficit in 2025, compared with more than the full deficit in 2024. The table does not contain first-half 2025 FDI data, so it cannot establish a year-on-year change for the latest six-month period.
Imports of investment and production goods
Capital-goods imports amounted to €4.95 billion, representing 19.4% of total goods imports. Intermediate goods accounted for €8.80 billion, or 34.5%. Combined, the two categories totalled €13.75 billion, equivalent to 53.9% of Serbia’s goods import bill. The source does not provide comparable January–July 2025 figures for these categories, so it does not establish whether capital-equipment or intermediate-goods imports accelerated.
The import structure nevertheless shows the scale of purchases associated with production and investment. The available data do not indicate how much of this spending was directed toward new capacity, equipment renewal or inputs for export production.
GDP and household purchasing power
The Ministry of Finance estimates 3.3% real GDP growth in 2026, compared with preliminary growth of 2.0% in 2025. The available table does not provide the quarterly expenditure breakdown required to determine how much of the projected expansion is attributable to consumption, investment or net trade. Household income indicators provide a stronger domestic-demand signal. Average net monthly salaries reached approximately €1,018 in January–June, with reported real growth of 8.4%.
Average monthly pensions were approximately €484 in January–July, increasing 9.3% in real terms. The source uses the table’s January–July average exchange rate of 117.3922 dinars per euro for the euro conversion of dinar-denominated income figures. Consumer prices were 2.5% higher year on year in July, while average inflation for January–July stood at 2.7%, compared with 3.8% for 2025. The figures indicate stronger average purchasing power, although average income data do not show how gains were distributed across households or how they compare with median earnings.
Household and corporate lending
Outstanding loans to businesses and households totalled approximately €36.19 billion at the end of July, increasing 7.9% in dinar terms from the end of 2025. Household loans reached approximately €18.24 billion, up 10.3%, while corporate loans stood at around €17.95 billion, an increase of 5.6%. Of the approximately €2.66 billion equivalent increase in combined outstanding lending, households accounted for about €1.70 billion, or 64.1%, while companies accounted for approximately €955 million.
The figures represent changes in outstanding loan balances rather than the value of newly issued loans. They therefore reflect lending, repayments and other changes to the stock of credit. The table does not distinguish mortgages from consumer loans or working-capital lending from corporate investment credit, preventing a more detailed assessment of how the additional borrowing was used.
Employment and monetary indicators
Average registered employment was approximately 2.312 million in January–July, compared with a 2.319 million full-year average for 2025. The first-half unemployment rate under the International Labour Organization methodology was 8.1%, compared with a 2025 four-quarter average of 8.7%. Average registered unemployment was approximately 340,000. Registered unemployment and the ILO unemployment rate use different methodologies and populations.
Foreign-exchange reserves held by the National Bank of Serbia reached €30.50 billion at the end of July, approximately €1.49 billion, or 5.1%, above the end-2025 level. The dinar stood at 117.3963 dinars per euro at end-July, compared with 117.282 dinars per euro at the end of 2025. The source’s January–July average rate was 117.3922 dinars per euro. The source converts banking stocks using the end-July exchange rate of 117.3963 dinars per euro. Broad money, measured by M3, reached approximately €48.58 billion equivalent at the end of July, increasing 3.7% in dinar terms from the end of 2025.
Fiscal position and reporting periods
The available fiscal data show a 2025 consolidated fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP, a primary deficit of approximately 0.8%, and general-government debt of 44.7% of GDP. Consolidated revenue amounted to 40.9% of GDP, while expenditure represented 43.4%. The 2026 fiscal fields in the workbook are blank, so the table does not provide current-year fiscal execution, September spending, the latest borrowing requirement or the latest government debt ratio.
The reporting periods also vary across the dataset. Although the indicators provide a snapshot relevant to an assessment around September, the workbook contains no September economic observations. Most current indicators cover January–July, while balance-of-payments data, salaries and the unemployment rate cover January–June. The latest figures therefore combine stronger goods exports, higher real household incomes and increased household lending with a current-account deficit that remains only partly covered by net FDI. Annual net FDI had already fallen substantially in 2025, while the 2026 data do not yet provide a full-year basis for measuring a recovery in foreign investment.
