Serbia’s retail sector continued to expand in 2026, supported by rising real wages and household purchasing power, although parts of the reported growth were influenced by fuel-buying patterns and comparisons with a disrupted retail environment a year earlier.
Retail turnover in May was 9.6% higher in nominal terms than in May 2025, while real turnover increased by 6.2%. During the first five months of 2026, real retail turnover rose by 7.5% year on year, according to the MAT assessment. MAT said Serbia remained among the leading European markets for real retail turnover growth at the beginning of 2026.
Wage Gains Reinforce Household Spending Capacity
Growth in household income has provided a significant basis for consumer expenditure. The average net wage in Serbia reached 121,805 dinars in April 2026, representing an increase of 11.5% in nominal terms and 7.9% in real terms compared with the same month of the previous year.
For the January-April period, average net wages rose by 11.6% nominally and 8.6% in real terms. The median net wage was 94,585 dinars, indicating that half of employees received monthly earnings at or below that level. The wage trend has strengthened household capacity for discretionary purchases and consumer borrowing while contributing to sustained retail activity despite elevated prices in several consumer segments.
Fuel Purchases and Base Effects Affect Retail Readings
MAT linked part of the year-on-year retail increase to the comparison base from 2025, when domestic political destabilisation and boycotts of major retail chains affected market activity. Fuel sales also influenced the overall retail performance. Motor fuel turnover increased by 30.7% year on year in March 2026, amid purchasing behaviour associated with the conflict in the Middle East.
Fuel retail turnover remained elevated in the following months, rising 18.6% nominally in April and 21.6% nominally in May. These movements reflected precautionary purchases and temporary market effects in addition to underlying consumer demand.
Growth Recorded Across Major Retail Categories
Retail activity increased across food, non-food and fuel categories in May. Real turnover in food, beverages and tobacco rose by 7.1%, while non-food retail turnover grew by 5.0%. Real turnover in motor fuels increased by 6.6%. Over the January-May period, real turnover in food, beverages and tobacco advanced by 6.8%. Non-food turnover rose by 7.7%, while motor fuel turnover recorded real growth of 9.3%.
The category data show that retail growth extended beyond fuel purchases, with spending continuing across essential and discretionary goods as real wage growth and lower inflation than during the previous peak period supported purchasing power.
Private-Sector Productivity Remains Relevant to Retail Expansion
The retail outlook carries implications for retailers, banks and commercial-property investors, including retail-chain expansion, lease planning, inventory management and consumer-credit assumptions. MAT noted that wage developments outside the public sector have traditionally been important to Serbia’s fiscal and consumption performance. Since mid-2025, however, public-sector wage movements have become more prominent across several categories. The durability of retail expansion will therefore remain connected to private-sector productivity and companies’ ability to maintain wage growth while preserving competitiveness.
