Serbia’s annual inflation rate increased to 3.5% in May 2026, up from 3.3% in April, despite a slowdown in monthly consumer-price growth, according to MAT. Monthly inflation eased to 0.3% in May from 0.8% a month earlier.
The annual rate has now risen for four consecutive months, although it remains within the National Bank of Serbia’s target corridor. MAT attributed the latest annual increase primarily to energy prices within non-core inflation, with core inflation also contributing.
Core Inflation Continues to Exceed Headline Rate
Core inflation rose from 4.4% in April to 4.5% in May, remaining above the headline inflation rate. The data indicate that consumer prices continue to be affected by energy, services and imported-cost movements. The lower monthly inflation reading provides a different signal from the annual trend, as the pace of price increases moderated during May while the year-on-year rate continued to accelerate.
Serbia Above EU and Eurozone Inflation Averages
Measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, Serbia’s inflation rate stood at 3.8% in May, compared with an average of 3.3% in the European Union and 3.2% in the eurozone.
Eight EU member states recorded higher inflation than Serbia. The highest annual rates were reported in Romania, at 9.7%, followed by Bulgaria, at 6.3%, and Lithuania, at 5.1%.
Fuel Prices Drive Energy-Related Inflation Pressures
Energy-related products registered substantial annual price increases in May. Prices of liquid household fuels rose by 42.5%, while diesel prices increased by 29.0% and petrol prices advanced by 16.2%.
Diesel and petrol carry larger weights in the consumer basket, increasing their contribution to overall inflation. Changes in fuel prices affect transport, agriculture, logistics, food distribution, construction inputs and household mobility.
Wage Growth Influences Services Pricing
Rising wages are supporting consumer spending, while labour costs can also influence service-sector prices where productivity growth is limited and payroll expenses increase faster than output per worker.
The effect is relevant for hospitality, personal services, local trade and parts of the transport sector. Higher nominal wages can support demand while contributing to slower disinflation when companies transfer increased labour costs into consumer prices.
Cost Management Remains Relevant for Businesses and Lenders
Energy, wages, services and imported inputs continue to affect operating margins across the Serbian economy. Industrial companies remain exposed to fuel and electricity costs, while retailers face category-level price elasticity considerations.
For lenders, inflation and interest-rate conditions remain relevant to debt-service assessments, including scenarios in which inflation stays within the target corridor while interest rates decline at a slower pace than borrowers anticipate.
