Serbia’s ICT and business services sector continued to play a major role in external earnings in early 2026, although growth momentum showed signs of moderation, according to the June 2026 MAT report. In the first quarter of 2026, exports of telecommunications, computer, and information services reached €1.099bn, marking a marginal year-on-year increase of 0.4%.
The sector remains a core contributor to Serbia’s services surplus, but the pace of expansion indicates a shift away from earlier rapid growth dynamics.
Trade Balance and Services Performance
The broader external services position remained positive in the reporting period. The goods-and-services deficit narrowed to €509.0mn in January–March 2026, compared with €929.3mn in the same period a year earlier. Total exports of goods and services increased by 6.4%, reaching €12.288bn. Despite its slowdown in growth rate, the ICT sector continues to play a significant role in supporting Serbia’s external accounts.
Transition From High Growth to Mature Expansion
The moderation in ICT export growth reflects a structural shift in the sector’s development cycle.
For several years, Serbia’s IT industry expanded rapidly, supported by factors including a skilled engineering workforce, competitive labour costs, strong English-language proficiency, nearshoring demand, outsourcing activity, software development, gaming, cloud services, and regional entrepreneurship. The 0.4% growth rate in Q1 2026 signals a transition from this high-growth phase toward more mature expansion dynamics.
Global Technology Conditions and Demand Pressure
The slowdown is linked to broader changes in global technology markets rather than domestic supply constraints. MAT highlights several external factors, including cost pressures on clients, the impact of artificial intelligence on software delivery models, more selective venture capital funding, and increased European demand for compliance, cybersecurity, data governance, and sector-specific platforms.
These shifts are altering demand patterns for outsourced services, requiring greater specialization from providers.
Shift Toward Higher-Value ICT Segments
Future growth in Serbia’s ICT sector is expected to rely on more specialized and higher-value segments.
Key areas include enterprise AI integration, industrial software, cybersecurity, embedded systems, energy-market software, fintech compliance, gaming infrastructure, logistics platforms, and engineering-focused digital services.
Serbia’s industrial base provides potential advantages in areas where software intersects with manufacturing, energy, mining, logistics, and environmental compliance systems. Emerging domestic requirements such as CBAM compliance, electricity trading systems, grid management, industrial automation, and environmental monitoring may also support exportable software development.
2026 Outlook and Growth Scenarios
ICT service exports are projected to remain above €4bn on an annualized basis if current quarterly trends continue. MAT notes that double-digit growth is unlikely without a recovery in European technology spending.
Under the base scenario, ICT exports are expected to grow in low single digits, maintaining a services surplus but no longer compensating for structural industrial weaknesses. The upside scenario includes stronger AI adoption, nearshoring trends, and enterprise digitalization, which could lift growth toward mid-single digits by 2027. The downside scenario involves pricing pressure and productivity gains from AI reducing demand for outsourced services.
Sector Positioning Shift Toward Specialization
Serbia’s ICT sector remains one of the strongest components of the national economy, but the competitive focus is shifting. Growth is increasingly driven by product depth, specialization in regulated industries, and integration with industrial clients, rather than workforce expansion alone.
