Serbia’s economy expanded 3.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, with stronger household consumption and recovering investment driving growth despite a larger negative contribution from net trade. The quarterly growth rate accelerated from 3.2% in the first quarter and 2.0% a year earlier, marking a stronger pace of economic activity.
Household Consumption Leads Domestic Demand
Private consumption increased 4.0% and contributed 2.6 percentage points to overall GDP growth. Fixed investment rose 3.3%, reversing the weakness recorded through much of 2025. Government consumption also increased, rising 2.5% during the quarter. External trade provided less support to growth. Exports of goods and services increased 4.1%, while imports grew more rapidly at 5.2%, limiting the contribution from net exports.
Agriculture and Construction Expand
The production side recorded growth across several major sectors, although the pace varied considerably. Agricultural output increased 12.1%, while construction expanded 9.1% and trade grew 5.9%. Services excluding trade rose 3.4% and provided the largest contribution to overall GDP growth. Industry and water supply recorded more limited growth of 1.5%, leaving industrial activity among the slower-growing parts of the economy.
Investment Recovery Shapes the 2026 Growth Pattern
The second-quarter acceleration changes the composition of Serbia’s growth profile, with household consumption accounting for a larger share of the expansion and fixed investment returning to growth. At the same time, industrial output remains subdued, while imports are increasing faster than exports. The recovery in investment is therefore linked to whether stronger capital spending translates into increased productive capacity alongside the expansion in domestic demand.
