Serbia’s inflation developments in April 2026 were driven primarily by energy-related price movements rather than demand-side pressures, according to MAT data. Monthly inflation reached 0.8% in April, while year-on-year inflation stood at 3.3% under the national measure. Using the harmonised index for EU comparison, annual inflation was 3.6%, compared with 3.2% in the EU and 3.0% in the eurozone.
- Energy Segment as Primary Inflation Driver
- Transport, Utilities and Food Prices Drive Annual Index
- Consumption Remains Strong Despite Inflation Pressure
- IMF Assessment and Monetary Policy Position
- Energy Dependency Defines Inflation Scenarios
- Inflation Composition Shift Toward Energy and Regulated Prices
Inflation remained within the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) target corridor, although the disinflation path showed reduced stability.
Energy Segment as Primary Inflation Driver
MAT identified non-core inflation, particularly energy prices, as the key source of upward pressure. Energy costs are expected to remain a major inflation factor, supported by reduced supply of oil and petroleum products linked to a Persian Gulf disruption.
Monthly core inflation increased from 0.1% to 0.5%, while non-core inflation rose from 0.8% to 1.0% in April.
Transport, Utilities and Food Prices Drive Annual Index
The annual inflation breakdown shows strong contributions from regulated and energy-linked categories. Diesel prices increased by 12.3% year-on-year, while petrol prices rose 6.0%, jointly contributing 0.583 percentage points to annual inflation. Electricity prices increased by 9.6%, adding 0.517 percentage points.
Additional price increases were recorded in multiple categories, including water supply, waste collection and wastewater services (+14.9%), restaurants and cafés (+7.8%), actual housing rents (+12.1%), tobacco (+7.3%), fruit and nuts (+7.8%), beef (+16.3%), and firewood (+7.6%).
Consumption Remains Strong Despite Inflation Pressure
Retail activity in Serbia continues to expand despite rising prices. Real retail turnover increased by 5.6% in April, while growth for the January–April period reached 7.9%. Net wages also rose, with a 9.5% real increase recorded in March, supporting household purchasing power. MAT notes that inflationary pressure is not primarily driven by excess demand but by cost transmission through fuel, utilities, food, and service categories where price adjustments tend to be more persistent.
IMF Assessment and Monetary Policy Position
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported annual inflation at 3.3% in April, noting that Serbia remains within the NBS target band of 3% ±1.5 percentage points. Monetary policy continues to maintain a tightening orientation in response to external cost pressures.
MAT forecasts consumer price growth of 3.5% by December 2026 compared with December 2025.
Energy Dependency Defines Inflation Scenarios
MAT’s inflation outlook for 2026 is strongly dependent on energy market developments. Under the base scenario, inflation is expected to remain within the NBS target corridor, averaging 3.5% to 4.0% as fuel-related pressures stabilize. The upside risk scenario includes renewed oil price shocks, refinery disruptions, or electricity tariff adjustments, which could push inflation toward the upper boundary of the target range.
The disinflation scenario assumes weaker European demand and lower energy prices, allowing inflation to settle close to the 3.5% forecast.
Inflation Composition Shift Toward Energy and Regulated Prices
The inflation profile indicates a shift away from demand-driven price growth toward energy, utilities, and regulated categories. Serbia’s price stability in 2026 is increasingly linked to external energy conditions, including oil logistics, refinery operations, electricity supply dynamics, and the timing of regulated price adjustments, rather than domestic consumption trends.
