Serbia recorded a 7.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in the first quarter of 2026, while goods imports rose by 0.3% over the same period. The data indicate stronger external sales performance compared with relatively flat import growth during the quarter.
Capital goods and intermediate products drive export structure
Within exports, capital goods exports increased by 30.5% year-on-year, while intermediate goods exports rose by 8.1%. The composition reflects higher activity in machinery, vehicles, components, and intermediate inputs within Serbia’s external trade flows during Q1 2026.
Import dynamics reflect industrial input demand
On the import side, intermediate goods imports increased by 5.5%, while capital goods imports rose by 8.5%. The movement in these categories indicates increased inflows of industrial inputs and equipment during the period. The overall modest import growth was driven by weaker performance in other import categories not specified in the data.
Outlook scenarios for goods exports in 2026
Projections for 2026 indicate goods exports in euro terms are expected to grow in a range of 5% to 8%, with capital goods expected to increase at a higher rate than the overall average. An upside scenario places export growth at 9% to 10%, contingent on stronger European Union demand and sustained orders in automotive, electrical equipment, and machinery segments.
A downside scenario projects growth slowing to 3% to 4% in the event of weaker European industrial demand or pressure from energy prices on exporters’ margins.
Export structure and trade composition in Q1 2026
The Q1 2026 trade data show a configuration in which capital goods and intermediate goods represent the strongest expanding categories in both exports and imports, with capital goods exports rising 30.5% and capital goods imports increasing 8.5% during the period.
