Serbia’s external trade position improved in the first months of 2026, according to data from the June 2026 MAT report, as goods exports increased significantly while imports remained largely stable. In April, goods exports reached €2.999bn, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, while imports rose only 0.2%. As a result, the monthly goods deficit narrowed by 23% to €772.9mn.
For the January–April period, total goods trade amounted to €25.897bn, with exports rising 8.2% to €11.785bn and imports increasing 0.5% to €14.113bn. The goods deficit declined by 26.1% to €2.328bn, while export coverage of imports improved to 83.5%, compared with 77.6% a year earlier.
Manufacturing and Mining Support Export Expansion
Manufacturing remained the dominant driver of Serbia’s export performance, accounting for 87.8% of total goods exports. Within this segment, manufacturing exports grew 9.4% cumulatively in January–April, with April alone showing growth of approximately 10%.
Mining also contributed to export expansion, representing 7.3% of total goods exports and recording a 36.1% cumulative increase, supported by metal ore and copper-linked production.
External Trade Structure Shows Sectoral Concentration
The composition of Serbia’s export base continues to reflect a concentrated industrial structure, with manufacturing and mining forming the core of goods exports. Despite uneven domestic industrial performance, the export structure in early 2026 shows a more balanced external position compared with 2025.
Shifts in Trade Partners and Geographic Exposure
Trade patterns also shifted slightly across key partners. The European Union accounted for 59% of Serbia’s total goods exchange, up from 57.6% a year earlier.
Germany remained Serbia’s largest trading partner with a 13.2% share, followed by China at 11.3%, up from 10.8%. Italy increased its share from 6.0% to 7.8%, while the United States declined from 2.2% to 1.5%. The structure reflects Serbia’s continued reliance on EU demand alongside growing integration with Chinese supply chains, particularly in industrial equipment and high-tech imports.
Dual Dependence on EU Demand and Chinese Supply
Serbia’s trade structure is increasingly shaped by two parallel dependencies. The EU remains the primary destination for exports and a key supplier of inputs, linking Serbia’s external performance to eurozone industrial cycles, particularly German demand. At the same time, China is expanding its role as a major source of imports and investment-linked industrial equipment. This dual exposure creates both opportunities and structural sensitivities in external trade dynamics.
Outlook for Trade Balance in 2026
MAT projects goods exports to grow 7.0% in euro terms in 2026, while imports are expected to increase by 8.5%. This suggests that the early-year improvement in export coverage may narrow as domestic demand strengthens, investment-related imports rise, and energy costs increase. The base scenario assumes continued export growth supported by automotive production, mining, manufacturing, and services exports. However, faster import growth remains a key risk factor.
Sustainability of Export-Led Improvement
The trade balance improvement observed in early 2026 is considered positive but not yet fully stable.
Its durability will depend on whether export growth broadens across multiple industrial sectors or remains concentrated in a limited number of strong-performing branches, while imports adjust temporarily due to cyclical or energy-related factors.
