Serbia’s consumer-oriented sectors recorded stronger activity in spring 2026, with retail sales and tourism both showing improvement. Real retail turnover reached an index level of 106.9 in May 2026, compared with 100.7 in May 2025, representing growth of approximately 6% after adjusting for price changes.
Tourism activity also increased, with total tourist arrivals rising to around 470,000, compared with 438,000 a year earlier. Foreign arrivals reached approximately 239,000, up about 9% year on year, while total overnight stays increased from 1.15 million to 1.21 million. The performance of retail and tourism has become an important contribution to economic activity as other sectors, including construction and electricity production, remain under pressure.
Household spending supported by wages and borrowing
Retail growth has been supported by stronger household purchasing power. Rising wages, remittance inflows, household lending growth and lower headline inflation have contributed to stronger consumer demand. Household credit has become an important factor behind retail activity. Total bank claims on households increased by approximately 20% year on year by June 2026, driven mainly by cash loans and housing-related lending.
While credit expansion supports discretionary spending, it also increases the importance of household debt-service capacity and labour-market stability for maintaining consumption growth.
Tourism expands foreign-currency revenue
Tourism provides a different economic contribution because foreign visitors generate additional foreign-currency earnings.
During the first five months of 2026, Serbia recorded a consistent surplus in services trade, with services exports exceeding imports. Tourism contributed to this broader increase in service-based foreign-currency income.
Belgrade remains the main destination for city breaks, business travel, conferences and events. Other destinations, including Novi Sad, mountain centres, spa resorts and cultural locations, continue to expand Serbia’s tourism offer.
Despite growth, the sector remains smaller than tourism markets in established Adriatic and Central European destinations. Visitor spending levels and average length of stay remain important commercial factors for further development.
Hospitality businesses face higher operating costs
Tourism companies are operating in an environment of rising domestic costs. Services inflation reached 6.6% in June 2026, reflecting increases in wages, rents, utilities and other operating expenses.
Hotels and restaurants must manage these cost pressures while maintaining competitiveness and avoiding price increases that could affect demand. Improved air connectivity supports tourism development, but higher visitor numbers alone do not guarantee stronger revenues without broader destination management and expansion of higher-value services.
Consumer sectors provide support as investment slows
Retail and tourism are providing Serbia with additional support at a time when construction activity and electricity production remain weaker.
The two sectors affect the economy differently. Tourism strengthens the external balance by generating foreign-currency income, while credit-supported retail demand can increase imports and household financial commitments. Both areas are expanding, but their long-term contribution will depend on how they interact with Serbia’s broader economic balance, including household debt, services exports and domestic production capacity.
