Serbia’s merchandise exports increased 8.3% year on year to €17.97 billion in the first half of 2026, helping reduce the country’s trade deficit despite continued pressure from weaker industrial employment. Imports grew at a slower pace, rising 3.7% to €21.68 billion, which lowered the goods trade deficit by 14.1% to €3.71 billion. Export coverage of imports improved during the period, increasing from 79.4% to 82.9%.
Total trade expands with EU remaining key market
Serbia’s total foreign trade reached €39.65 billion in the first six months, representing a 5.8% increase compared with the same period a year earlier.
The European Union accounted for 58.7% of Serbia’s total trade, maintaining its position as the country’s dominant external economic partner. The figures show that Serbian exporters remain closely linked to EU market demand, even as investment activity from China, the Middle East and other regions continues to expand. Trade with CEFTA markets generated a significant surplus. Serbia recorded a €1.59 billion positive balance with CEFTA economies, supported by exports of cereals, beverages, vehicles, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment.
This regional trade surplus partially offsets deficits recorded in sectors such as energy, machinery and higher-value imported inputs required by domestic industry.
Export growth reflects stronger external balance
The stronger export performance compared with import growth supports Serbia’s external position, including the dinar exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and sovereign credit indicators.
Rising export values do not necessarily indicate deeper domestic industrial integration. A number of Serbia’s largest exporters continue to depend heavily on imported components, production equipment and raw materials, meaning that domestic value creation remains lower than the total value of exported goods.
Manufacturing employment decline highlights structural challenges
The decline in manufacturing employment adds another layer to the trade figures. Export growth has been concentrated in sectors including automated automotive production, tyre manufacturing, mining, metals and electrical equipment, where increased output can occur alongside a reduction in workforce numbers. At the same time, suppliers unable to meet cost, quality or financing requirements may experience job losses even as overall export figures continue to increase.
