Serbia’s merchandise exports grew significantly faster than imports in the first half of 2026, reducing the country’s trade deficit and improving the ratio of export earnings to imported goods. Total goods trade reached €39.65 billion between January and June 2026, representing an increase of 5.8% compared with the same period a year earlier. In US dollar terms, total trade amounted to $46.24 billion, up 13%, reflecting both underlying trade growth and exchange-rate effects.
Exports increased to €17.97 billion, rising 8.3% year on year, while imports grew at a slower pace of 3.7% to €21.68 billion. As a result, Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit declined to €3.71 billion, a reduction of 14.1% compared with the first six months of 2025.
Export performance improves external trade balance
Measured in dollars, Serbia’s exports reached $20.95 billion, an annual increase of 15.7%, while imports totalled $25.28 billion, up 10.9%. The dollar-denominated trade deficit decreased by 7.9% to $4.33 billion. The improvement was also reflected in the import coverage ratio. Export revenues covered 82.9% of merchandise imports during the first half of 2026, compared with 79.4% in the same period of 2025.
The 3.5 percentage-point increase indicates a stronger contribution from external trade and a reduced need for additional external financing linked to domestic consumption and investment demand. Based on reported growth rates, Serbia exported approximately €16.59 billion worth of goods and imported around €20.91 billion in the first half of 2025. The latest figures indicate that export revenues increased by approximately €1.38 billion, while the import bill rose by about €770 million. The difference between export and import growth reduced the trade gap by more than €600 million year on year.
Industrial exports support trade resilience
The stronger trade balance has implications for Serbia’s wider external position, as the country remains a significant importer of energy, industrial equipment, transport machinery, intermediate goods and consumer products. Faster export growth provides support for the current account position, foreign-exchange reserves and the stability of the dinar.
The first-half results also indicate continued resilience among Serbia’s export-oriented industrial sectors despite weaker manufacturing conditions in parts of the eurozone. Foreign-owned production facilities focused on electrical equipment, automotive components, tyres, machinery and metal products remain important contributors to export performance, alongside mining, agriculture, food processing and pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Export growth remains influenced by several factors, including commodity prices, product composition and output from individual large industrial facilities. Concentration among major exporters means disruptions at key producers or weaker European demand could have a significant effect on overall trade results.
European Union remains Serbia’s main trade partner
The European Union accounted for 58.7% of Serbia’s total merchandise trade during the first six months of 2026, confirming the bloc’s position as the country’s largest commercial partner. Based on total trade figures, EU-related merchandise exchanges were worth approximately €23.3 billion during the period.
Serbia’s close integration with EU markets links domestic industrial performance to European production cycles, regulatory requirements and investment trends. Compliance with EU product standards, supply-chain due diligence rules and carbon reporting obligations is becoming increasingly important for exporters seeking to maintain competitiveness. The introduction of the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 has created additional reporting and cost requirements for producers of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity.
The impact extends beyond companies directly covered by CBAM rules. Serbian suppliers serving European automotive, engineering, construction and industrial companies are increasingly required to provide information on electricity consumption, embedded emissions, material origins and production processes.
CEFTA trade generates significant surplus
Regional trade continued to provide an important source of support for Serbia’s external balance. Trade with Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) members generated a surplus of €1.59 billion in the first half of 2026. Serbian exports to CEFTA markets reached €2.37 billion, while imports from the region totalled €782.2 million.
Exports covered 303.1% of imports from CEFTA countries during the period. In dollar terms, Serbia exported $2.76 billion to CEFTA markets and imported $912.1 million, resulting in a surplus of $1.85 billion. The regional surplus was supported by exports of cereals and cereal products, beverages, road vehicles, medical and pharmaceutical products, and electrical machinery and equipment.
These trade flows reflect Serbia’s role as a manufacturing and distribution centre in the Western Balkans, supported by geographic proximity, established logistics networks and tariff-free regional access. The CEFTA surplus also offsets part of Serbia’s deficit created by imports of machinery, technology, energy and industrial inputs from larger international markets. A regional trade surplus of nearly €1.6 billion represents more than 42% of Serbia’s total merchandise trade deficit, highlighting the importance of neighbouring markets for the country’s external balance.
Export competitiveness increasingly linked to compliance requirements
The first-half trade figures show a narrowing deficit as export growth continues to exceed import growth, although Serbia remains dependent on foreign supplies of key goods. Future trade performance will depend on European industrial demand, agricultural production, commodity prices, energy import requirements and the expansion of export-oriented manufacturing investments.
The regulatory environment in European markets is also becoming a more important factor for Serbian companies. Maintaining access to European supply chains increasingly requires exporters to establish systems for emissions measurement, input traceability, electricity documentation and compliance reporting. The ability of Serbian companies to meet these requirements will influence whether the improvement in the trade balance develops into a longer-term trend.
