Serbia recorded a significant improvement in its external trade position in the first five months of 2026, with stronger export values and lower import prices contributing to a reduction in the merchandise trade deficit by €884 million.
- Export and import price movements improve trade conditions
- Manufacturing drives export performance
- Capital goods and intermediate products strengthen surplus
- EU trade deficit narrows as exports expand
- Asian trade gap remains a major challenge
- CEFTA market delivers strong regional surplus
- Energy remains Serbia’s largest external trade deficit
Foreign-trade price data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for January–May 2026 show that export values within the representative product sample increased by 9.8% year-on-year. Export unit values rose by 5.1%, while physical export volumes expanded by 4.5%.
Imports followed a different pattern, with their value increasing by only 2.0% despite a 6.6% rise in physical volume. The difference was driven by a 4.3% decline in import unit values, reducing the cost pressure associated with imported goods.
Export and import price movements improve trade conditions
The stronger relative movement between export and import prices pushed Serbia’s terms-of-trade index to 109.8, showing that export unit values improved compared with import unit values during the period. The shift allowed Serbia to obtain a larger quantity of imported goods for each unit of export revenue, supporting the trade balance and reducing costs for businesses relying on imported equipment, components, chemicals and energy products.
Complete customs statistics show that Serbia’s merchandise exports reached €14.70 billion in the first five months of 2026, representing a 7.7% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. Imports grew by 1.0% to €17.68 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of €2.98 billion, compared with €3.86 billion in the same period of 2025. The export-to-import coverage ratio increased from approximately 77.9% to 83.1%. The difference between the customs export growth rate and the 9.8% increase recorded in the price-index publication reflects different methodologies. The unit-value calculation covers a comparable product sample representing 96.1% of exports and 91.9% of imports, while customs statistics include the full range of traded goods.
Manufacturing drives export performance
Manufacturing remained the largest contributor to Serbia’s foreign trade revenues. Manufacturing exports reached €12.93 billion, accounting for nearly 88% of total goods exports, and increased by 8.6% year-on-year. Manufacturing imports rose by 5.8% to €13.17 billion, reducing the sector’s trade deficit from €555 million to €246 million.
Within the representative manufacturing sample, export unit values increased by 3.5%, while physical export volumes grew by 5.4%. Import unit values declined by 1.7%, although import volumes increased by 8.8%. The manufacturing terms-of-trade index improved by 5.3%, while the volume data showed continued reliance on imported materials, equipment and intermediate goods for industrial production.
Capital goods and intermediate products strengthen surplus
The strongest improvement came from capital goods trade. Exports in this category increased by 27.1% to €4.18 billion, while imports rose by 5.3% to €3.31 billion. The capital-goods trade surplus expanded from €153 million to €877 million. Motor vehicles represented the largest contributor, alongside machinery, fabricated metal products and selected electronic equipment. Intermediate goods also recorded a larger surplus. Exports increased by 9.3% to €6.45 billion, while imports grew by 6.1% to €6.12 billion. The category generated a surplus of €326 million, compared with €128 million a year earlier, reflecting stronger industrial exports while also showing the continued role of imported inputs in Serbian manufacturing supply chains.
EU trade deficit narrows as exports expand
The European Union remained Serbia’s most important trading partner during the period. Exports to EU markets increased by 9.8% to €9.27 billion, while imports grew by 2.2% to €9.76 billion. The EU trade deficit narrowed from €1.10 billion to €486 million, representing more than two-thirds of the overall reduction in Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit. The EU accounted for 63.1% of Serbian exports, up from 61.9%, and supplied 55.2% of imports.
Export growth was particularly strong with several European markets. Shipments to Italy increased by 61.5% to €1.29 billion, while exports to France rose by 23.8%, Spain by 39.0%, the United Kingdom by 48.0%, and Greece by 88.3%. Germany remained Serbia’s largest individual export market, with shipments reaching €2.20 billion.
Asian trade gap remains a major challenge
Trade with Asian markets continued to generate a significant deficit. Serbia’s exports to Asia increased by 12.0% to €1.46 billion, but imports reached €4.26 billion.
Trade with China alone resulted in exports of €883 million and imports of €2.69 billion, creating a deficit exceeding €1.8 billion. China accounted for 15.2% of Serbian imports, while representing only 6.0% of exports.
CEFTA market delivers strong regional surplus
Serbia maintained a positive trade balance with the Western Balkan and broader CEFTA market. Exports to the region reached €1.92 billion, compared with imports of €639 million, producing a surplus of €1.28 billion. The surplus increased compared with the previous year, despite a modest decline in regional export values, as imports from the group fell more sharply.
Energy remains Serbia’s largest external trade deficit
Energy continued to represent the weakest segment of Serbia’s external trade position. Energy exports declined to €347 million, while imports remained above €2.02 billion, leaving a deficit of approximately €1.68 billion. Lower international import prices reduced the nominal cost of energy demand, but the gap between domestic production and requirements for crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas remained. The first five months of 2026 showed an improvement in Serbia’s trade structure, supported by stronger capital goods exports, vehicle shipments and higher-processing industrial activities. At the same time, the country continued to face exposure through energy imports, technology-related demand and supply chains linked to Asian markets.
