Serbia’s industrial sector recorded mixed results during the first quarter of 2026, with overall production declining while several export-oriented manufacturing industries delivered strong growth. The latest data indicate that weakness in energy-related activities, mining and selected heavy industries was offset in part by robust expansion in automotive manufacturing, capital goods production and other higher-value industrial segments.
Total industrial production fell 0.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Within the overall result, manufacturing declined 0.4%, mining contracted 3.2%, and electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply decreased 0.9%.
Capital Goods and Automotive Manufacturing Drive Growth
Industrial performance varied significantly across production categories. Capital goods output increased 12.9%, contrasting with a 7.1% decline in energy production and an 11.7% fall in durable consumer goods production. The figures point to contrasting conditions across Serbia’s industrial base, with equipment manufacturing, vehicle production and selected specialised industries expanding while energy-intensive and commodity-related activities continued to weaken.
Manufacturing data also reflected an uneven performance across industry branches. Only 9 of 24 manufacturing branches posted year-on-year growth during the first quarter, accounting for 25.6% of total industrial output. Among the strongest-performing sectors, rubber and plastic products production increased 5.3%, motor vehicles and trailers surged 51.5%, and basic pharmaceutical products rose 6.2%.
Energy, Metals and Petroleum Products Remain Under Pressure
Several major industrial segments continued to record lower production levels during the period. Food products output declined 1.4%, coke and refined petroleum products dropped 21.7%, and fabricated metal products decreased 4.1%.
The combination of weaker energy production, mining activity and parts of the metals sector continued to weigh on Serbia’s overall industrial performance despite gains in selected manufacturing industries.
Industrial output improved in April, rising 3.4% year-on-year, providing a stronger monthly reading following the first-quarter contraction. While the increase may indicate that industrial activity reached a low point during the opening quarter of the year, a single month’s performance does not establish a sustained recovery.
Outlook Centers on Export-Oriented Manufacturing
The baseline projection for 2026 anticipates Serbian industrial production growth of 1.0% to 2.5%, supported primarily by automotive supply chains, electrical equipment, rubber and plastics, pharmaceuticals, and capital goods exports.
An alternative scenario would see industrial production remain close to flat for the year if weakness in energy output, mining, and metals persists. A stronger outcome would depend on firmer European Union demand, reduced energy market volatility, and a recovery in the food processing and metal-processing industries.
The industrial data indicate that Serbia’s manufacturing performance remains uneven, with competitiveness strengthening in selected export-linked sectors while energy-related industries and commodity-based manufacturing continue to constrain broader industrial growth.
