Serbia’s energy import costs declined in the first five months of 2026 as international fuel prices fell, but the country’s structural dependence on imported crude oil, refined products, gas and electricity remained unchanged. Foreign-trade price indices show that mineral-fuel import unit values decreased by 16.3% compared with January–May 2025. Physical import volumes increased by 21.5%, but lower prices reduced the euro value of imports by 12.2%.
- Energy trade deficit widens despite cheaper imports
- Refined petroleum imports rise as exports decline
- Crude oil supply remains dependent on imports
- Gas diversification improves access but dependency remains
- Electricity balance depends on production conditions
- Higher fuel demand increases external exposure
- Currency exposure adds further pressure
Export performance within the comparable product basket was stronger, with export unit values rising by 1.7% and physical export volumes increasing by 2.9%. Export value increased by 4.6%, while the mineral-fuels terms-of-trade index improved by 21.5%. The lower average import cost allowed Serbian companies, transport operators and households to obtain larger fuel quantities at reduced prices, easing external cost pressures linked to energy demand.
Energy trade deficit widens despite cheaper imports
Broader customs statistics show a weaker overall energy balance. Energy exports declined by 39.7% to €347 million, while imports decreased by only 5.6% to €2.02 billion. The energy trade deficit increased from €1.57 billion in the first five months of 2025 to €1.68 billion in the same period of 2026.
The difference between the positive mineral-fuel price indicators and the deterioration in the wider energy balance reflects differences in product composition. The price index covers comparable mineral-fuel products, while the broader energy category includes multiple segments with different export and import movements.
Refined petroleum imports rise as exports decline
The refined petroleum-products segment recorded a significant deterioration. Exports of coke and refined petroleum products declined by 20.1% to €138 million, while imports increased by 48.8% to €575 million. The resulting deficit more than doubled, rising from €214 million to €437 million.
Electricity, gas, steam and related energy trade also weakened. Exports in this category fell by 47.7% to €208 million, while imports declined by 27.7% to €281 million. A surplus of approximately €8 million recorded in January–May 2025 turned into a €74 million deficit during the same period of 2026. The developments place major energy companies and infrastructure operators, including NIS, the Pančevo refinery, EPS, Srbijagas and Serbia’s cross-border energy connections, at the centre of the country’s external energy position.
Crude oil supply remains dependent on imports
Serbia’s crude oil supply continues to rely significantly on imported volumes transported through the JANAF pipeline system from the Adriatic region. The Pančevo refinery processes imported crude oil into petroleum products for domestic consumption and regional markets.
The balance between imports and domestic refining depends on crude supply conditions, pipeline availability, refinery utilisation and international payment arrangements. Higher refined-product imports during early 2026 show that lower global fuel prices did not eliminate Serbia’s need for external supply. Greater import dependence remains manageable during periods of stable markets and falling prices, but it increases exposure to supply disruptions, sanctions-related risks, regional shortages and higher working-capital requirements when market conditions change.
Gas diversification improves access but dependency remains
Natural gas remains another significant structural dependency. Domestic production covers only part of Serbia’s consumption, leaving Srbijagas dependent on imported volumes, storage capacity at Banatski Dvor and additional storage arrangements outside the country. The gas interconnector with Bulgaria has improved access to alternative supply routes, including gas from Azerbaijan and LNG-linked regional sources. Diversification continues to depend on available infrastructure capacity, transport arrangements and market prices.
Electricity balance depends on production conditions
Electricity trade performance remains more variable due to the influence of hydrology, thermal generation availability, consumption patterns and market prices.
EPS can shift between electricity export and import positions over relatively short periods. The decline in electricity-related exports during early 2026 reduced one mechanism through which Serbia has previously offset part of its petroleum and gas import requirements.
Renewable energy expansion, including wind, solar and battery-storage capacity, could reduce some import dependence, but the impact depends on grid capacity, balancing resources and system flexibility. Transmission investment, connection delays and potential curtailment risks influence how effectively new renewable generation contributes to energy security and trade performance.
Higher fuel demand increases external exposure
The 21.5% increase in physical mineral-fuel imports also reflects stronger demand conditions. Lower prices supported higher consumption, inventory rebuilding or increased industrial use. From a trade perspective, lower unit prices improved Serbia’s nominal energy balance. From an energy-security perspective, higher physical dependence means a larger share of economic activity relies on uninterrupted external supply.
Industrial users benefited from lower energy costs in the short term. Reduced fuel and feedstock prices can improve operating conditions for transport companies, chemical producers, construction-material manufacturers, agricultural businesses and industrial firms that previously faced higher energy expenses. The benefit remains sensitive to future market movements. A reversal in oil or gas prices would affect a larger imported volume base, potentially increasing the trade deficit and raising corporate working-capital requirements.
Currency exposure adds further pressure
International energy contracts are commonly denominated in US dollars or linked to dollar-based commodity benchmarks. As a result, exchange-rate movements can increase costs for Serbian companies and energy operators even when commodity prices remain unchanged.
The €1.68 billion energy deficit represented more than half of Serbia’s total merchandise trade deficit during January–May 2026. Surpluses generated by automotive exports, mining and capital goods helped offset part of the energy burden, but energy remained the largest structural negative contributor to the external account.
The lower energy prices recorded in the first five months of 2026 provided temporary relief for Serbian companies and public energy institutions, supporting inventory management, supply diversification efforts and investment planning. The underlying structure remained unchanged, with Serbia importing larger quantities of energy while refined-product and electricity trade balances weakened. Future external resilience will continue to depend on refinery reliability, gas diversification, electricity-generation performance and the deployment of new domestic energy capacity.
