Serbia’s basic-metals industry recorded higher export prices in the first five months of 2026, but declining physical shipments and stronger import growth pushed the sector from a trade surplus into deficit. Export unit values for basic metals increased by 22.4% year-on-year, while physical export volumes declined by 17.7%. The opposing movements resulted in only a 0.8% increase in the representative export-value index compared with the same period of 2025. Imports developed in the opposite direction. Import unit values increased by 11.2%, while physical import volumes rose by 6.6%, leading to an 18.5% increase in import value within the representative product basket.
- Export prices offset decline in metal shipments
- Iron and steel deficit expands as imports remain higher
- Non-ferrous metals maintain surplus but balance weakens
- Mining growth contrasts with downstream processing pressure
- Fabricated metal products remain a stronger segment
- Carbon rules increase pressure on metal producers
- Energy costs and utilisation remain key industrial factors
- Processing capacity becomes central to sector performance
Complete customs data show that basic-metals exports increased by 3.7% to €1.27 billion, while imports rose by 19.7% to €1.33 billion. As a result, the sector moved from a €108 million trade surplus in January–May 2025 to a €66 million deficit in the first five months of 2026, representing a deterioration of approximately €174 million.
Export prices offset decline in metal shipments
The difference between the representative price-index data and full customs statistics reflects differences in product coverage and composition. Both datasets indicate the same underlying trend: higher export prices limited the impact of falling physical volumes.
The increase in realised values prevented export revenues from declining at the same pace as shipment volumes, but it did not reflect stronger operational output from domestic metal processors. The sector faced pressure from both sides of the trade balance, with producers exporting fewer tonnes while Serbian companies imported larger quantities of metals at higher prices.
Iron and steel deficit expands as imports remain higher
The iron and steel segment recorded weaker performance during the period. Exports declined by 11.7% to €273 million, while imports decreased by only 3.9% to €429 million. The trade deficit in iron and steel widened from €137 million to €156 million. Serbia’s iron and steel industry remains closely linked to HBIS Serbia’s Smederevo steelworks, which represents a central part of the country’s steel production chain. The company’s performance is influenced by factors including energy costs, raw-material availability, European demand conditions, environmental investment requirements and carbon-related reporting obligations.
Non-ferrous metals maintain surplus but balance weakens
Non-ferrous metals continued to generate a trade surplus, although the positive balance narrowed. Exports increased by 8.9% to €965 million, while imports rose by 30.0% to €743 million. The surplus declined from €315 million to €222 million. The segment includes Serbia’s copper-processing activities centred around Serbia Zijin Copper in Bor, as well as the country’s rolled-aluminium production represented by Impol Seval. The commercial position of these companies differs, but producers across the non-ferrous metals industry face common challenges related to energy consumption, raw materials, European market conditions, environmental investment and carbon-emissions documentation.
Mining growth contrasts with downstream processing pressure
The performance of basic metals contrasts with Serbia’s mining sector. Metal-ore exports increased by more than one-third during the same period, largely supported by higher unit values, while basic-metals export volumes declined by almost one-fifth. The divergence shows stronger performance at the extraction stage compared with parts of the downstream processing chain.
Higher ore exports do not automatically translate into stronger domestic metal production. Processing performance depends on factors including product specifications, treatment capacity, energy availability, maintenance cycles and market demand. A country can increase mineral exports while importing semi-finished or finished metal products that domestic facilities do not produce in sufficient quantities or required specifications.
Fabricated metal products remain a stronger segment
Fabricated metal products recorded a more positive trade performance. Exports increased by 11.5% to €926 million, while imports grew by 18.6% to €679 million. The segment retained a trade surplus of €248 million, slightly below the previous year’s €259 million. Physical export volumes increased by 8.7%, while export unit values rose by 3.7%. Import volumes grew by 11.9%, with import unit values remaining broadly stable. The data indicate stronger performance in selected higher-processing metal products, even as primary-metal export volumes declined.
Carbon rules increase pressure on metal producers
The metals industry is entering a period of stricter regulatory requirements linked to carbon emissions. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase in 2026, increasing financial exposure for covered carbon-intensive imports and requiring more detailed emissions information from producers. Serbian exporters of iron, steel and aluminium must provide data that allows EU importers to calculate embedded emissions and manage CBAM obligations.
Incomplete production information, default emissions values or insufficient electricity documentation may increase carbon-related costs or affect commercial conditions with buyers. For metal producers, CBAM affects more than customs procedures. It influences pricing, supply contracts, electricity procurement, emissions monitoring, metering systems and investment decisions. Companies with reliable plant-level emissions data and lower verified carbon intensity are better positioned to maintain access to European customers.
Energy costs and utilisation remain key industrial factors
Electricity remains a central issue for metals production. Steelmaking, smelting, rolling and other metal-processing activities require significant energy inputs, and the emissions profile of purchased electricity can influence the embedded-carbon calculation of exported products. The decline in physical export volumes also affects cost structures at large industrial facilities. Metal plants carry substantial fixed costs related to labour, maintenance, environmental systems and energy infrastructure. Lower production levels increase the share of these costs allocated to each tonne produced.
Higher export prices can therefore support revenues without fully addressing profitability pressures caused by lower utilisation, inventory accumulation or rising operating requirements. The trade data do not provide individual company margins, but they show a sector-wide pattern of stronger prices, weaker export volumes and increased import competition.
Processing capacity becomes central to sector performance
Serbia’s basic-metals industry continues to operate with established production assets, access to domestic mineral resources, proximity to EU markets and demand from sectors including automotive, electrical equipment and construction. The shift from a €108 million surplus to a €66 million deficit highlights the importance of processing depth and industrial competitiveness.
Basic metals connect Serbia’s mining activities with its manufacturing base. Lower performance in this part of the value chain reduces the amount of value retained domestically from mineral extraction and industrial production. The first five months of 2026 showed that higher commodity prices supported export earnings, but the sector’s future performance will depend on restoring physical output, improving energy efficiency and meeting environmental and carbon-verification requirements for European markets.
