Serbia’s merchandise exports are becoming increasingly concentrated in automotive production, mining and higher-value manufacturing, while services are gaining weight and electricity exports face pressure from carbon-border rules and weaker hydrological conditions.
The shift was particularly pronounced in the first half of 2026, when motor-vehicle exports rose 51.1% year on year. The increase was driven by substantially higher production of the Fiat Grande Panda and, partly, the Citroën C3 at Stellantis’s Kragujevac plant, compared with the previous year’s production ramp-up. The National Bank of Serbia estimates that motor vehicles generated almost three-quarters of the overall increase in goods exports during the period. The automotive sector’s share of Serbian merchandise exports consequently approached 20%, compared with 15.7% in 2025 and roughly 12-13% several years earlier.
Automotive production expands its export role
Production figures reinforce the export performance. Motor-vehicle manufacturing increased 43.3% year on year in the second quarter, contributing to a 3.3% increase in total manufacturing output. The NBS expects electric-vehicle production in Kragujevac to continue increasing as capacity utilisation rises. European demand remains relatively weak overall, but registrations of electric vehicles increased 40.5% year on year in the first half, supporting expectations of stronger utilisation at the Serbian plant.
Mining represents another major source of export growth. Serbia’s mining exports increased 34.7% in the first half, supported by an almost 40% year-on-year increase in global copper prices. In the second quarter alone, mining exports rose approximately 30.3%. The performance of mining exports provided additional support to Serbia’s external position at a time when the cost of energy imports was increasing.
Manufacturing and services broaden export growth
Automotive production and mining are part of a wider manufacturing expansion. Serbian manufacturing exports increased 9.0% in the first half, with export growth recorded in 15 of 23 branches.
Metal products contributed approximately 1.1 percentage points to overall export growth, while rubber and plastics added 0.7 percentage points. Computers and electronics, basic metals and chemicals each contributed approximately 0.4 percentage points.
Services are also becoming a larger component of Serbia’s external trade. The country recorded a €703 million services surplus in the second quarter, as service exports increased 10.9% year on year. ICT and business services provided the largest contributions, while services imports rose 6.8%. The combination of stronger goods exports and expanding services has altered the way the Serbian economy absorbs external shocks. The current-account deficit declined by around 30% in the first half of 2026, despite a deterioration in the energy balance, as export growth became distributed across automotive manufacturing, mining, other industrial branches and tradable services.
Electricity exports face CBAM and hydropower constraints
The export performance is not uniform across sectors. Electricity production declined 8.8% year on year in the second quarter, while electricity exports fell by approximately 45%.
The reduction reflected both adjustments by producers to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and lower hydropower availability, which reduced domestic electricity generation. The NBS identifies CBAM as a constraint on the energy sector and also points to potential pressure from announced EU steel-import quotas. The central bank does not currently expect these developments to have a large negative effect on overall net exports, but they represent a structural change for carbon-intensive exporters.
The contrast between the automotive and electricity sectors highlights the differing effects of Europe’s climate policy on Serbia’s trade. Electric-vehicle production is benefiting from the shift toward electrified transport, while carbon-intensive electricity exports face increasingly demanding trade conditions.
Energy investment remains central to export capacity
The changing export structure also increases the importance of investment in the electricity system. The NBS expects electricity and mining activity to recover gradually in subsequent years, supported by structural reforms and the expansion of renewable-generation capacity. For manufacturing exporters, higher electric-vehicle production provides additional capacity to offset weak European demand. The NBS expects rising utilisation at Kragujevac as EV registrations continue to expand.
At the same time, the export structure is becoming more diversified in terms of the types of activity generating foreign revenues. Automotive manufacturing is expanding rapidly, metals and mining are benefiting from investment and commodity prices, while ICT and business services are growing without the same physical-import intensity associated with goods production.
The NBS expects this composition to support the external position in 2027. Expo-related tourism and business services are projected to push net exports into positive territory and contribute approximately 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth next year. The emerging export mix remains exposed to sector-specific risks. Stellantis has become an important contributor to incremental export growth, making production utilisation and European EV demand significant factors. Copper export revenues remain sensitive to global commodity prices, while ICT and business services depend on labour availability and international demand.
The first-half figures nevertheless show that the improvement in Serbia’s external position was supported by an increase in export capacity rather than solely by weaker imports. The country’s export base is consequently shifting further toward electric vehicles, copper, industrial components, business services and ICT, while electricity and other carbon-intensive exports face greater regulatory and market constraints under the evolving European trade framework.
