Serbia recorded €39.65 billion in merchandise trade during the first half of 2026, with export growth substantially exceeding the increase in imports and reducing the country’s goods deficit. Exports reached €17.97 billion between January and June, up 8.3% year on year, while imports rose 3.7% to €21.68 billion. The resulting deficit narrowed to €3.71 billion, a 14.1% decline from the same period of 2025. Export coverage of imports consequently improved to 82.9%, compared with 79.4% a year earlier.
The change comes as Serbia’s economy continues to expand. Real GDP growth was estimated at 3.6% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, following 3.2% in the first quarter. Industrial production increased 0.8% year on year in June, while construction activity rose 9% in real terms during the second quarter.
Industrial goods dominate Serbia’s external trade
The composition of trade indicates that the improvement is linked to Serbia’s manufacturing and industrial base rather than a single agricultural or commodity development. Products intended for further production accounted for 59.5% of exports, while consumer goods represented 28% and equipment 12.4%. On the import side, intermediate products made up 55.2%, consumer goods 21.1% and equipment 11%.
The structure reflects Serbia’s integration into European manufacturing supply chains. The country imports energy, machinery, raw materials and industrial components before processing or assembling products for domestic and foreign markets. Automotive manufacturing remains a major export driver. In June, vehicle, aircraft and ship wiring sets generated approximately $177 million in exports, followed by passenger vehicles at $163 million and motor-vehicle parts at $94 million.
The figures coincide with increased production at the Stellantis plant in Kragujevac, where the Fiat Grande Panda is being manufactured as the first electric passenger vehicle produced in Serbia. The model is based on the STLA Smart platform and is positioned as a global vehicle, with additional production in Algeria and South America. The Kragujevac facility has previously had a significant influence on Serbia’s export performance through Fiat 500L production. As production of that model declined, the automotive sector’s contribution weakened, while the Grande Panda is introducing a new phase centred increasingly on electrified vehicles.
The export effect extends beyond completed vehicles. Serbian production of wiring harnesses, tyres, electronic components, plastics and metal parts supports the wider automotive supply chain. Companies including Yura, Leoni, Continental, Bosch, Michelin and ZF have contributed to the development of Serbia’s automotive-components industry, helping maintain significant exports of vehicle wiring and parts even as finished-vehicle production changes.
Copper strengthens the mining contribution
Copper has become another major component of Serbia’s export structure.
Copper ore and concentrates generated about $166 million in exports in June, while refined copper contributed a further $149 million. Combined, the two categories generated more than $300 million in exports during the month. The increase is linked to the development of the mining complex around Bor and Čukaru Peki under Zijin Mining.
Serbia Zijin Copper and Serbia Zijin Mining produced a combined 296,000 tonnes of copper in 2025, alongside 9.1 tonnes of gold. Zijin’s 2026 guidance calls for another 296,000 tonnes of copper, while expansion projects are ultimately targeting combined Serbian production of approximately 450,000 tonnes annually. The expansion has increased the importance of mining within Serbia’s export structure. Copper also exposes the country’s external sector to global demand associated with electrification, electricity grids, renewable energy and data-centre construction. At the same time, a larger contribution from copper means international metals prices and production performance at the Bor complex can have a more visible effect on national export results.
The geographic composition of trade remains heavily European. EU member states accounted for 58.7% of Serbia’s merchandise trade, equivalent to approximately €23.3 billion during the first six months of 2026. Germany was Serbia’s largest individual export destination, followed by Italy, China, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary.
China remains Serbia’s largest import source
On the import side, China ranked first, ahead of Germany, Italy, Turkey and Hungary. China has therefore become both Serbia’s third-largest export market and largest import source. Serbian exports to China are supported significantly by mining and metals, while imports include electronics, telecommunications equipment, machinery and manufactured consumer and industrial products.
The bilateral relationship continues to produce Serbia’s largest trade deficit with an individual country. The imbalance reflects the comparatively narrow range of Serbian products sold to China against the large volume of Chinese capital goods, manufactured products and industrial equipment entering Serbia. Turkey and Poland also remain among the markets where Serbia records substantial trade deficits.
The situation is different across the Western Balkans. Serbia generated a €1.59 billion trade surplus with CEFTA countries in the first half of 2026. Exports to CEFTA markets reached €2.37 billion, compared with imports of €782 million, producing export coverage of approximately 303%. The resulting surplus accounted for roughly 43% of Serbia’s €3.71 billion global merchandise deficit. Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia are among Serbia’s important surplus markets. Serbian companies sell cereals, beverages, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and other products across the region, benefiting from proximity, established distribution networks and free-trade arrangements.
Regional commerce also provides an important market for Serbian-owned companies, while multinational manufacturers operating in Serbia frequently export through European supply chains.
June imports accelerate
The cumulative first-half improvement was accompanied by a sharper increase in imports during June. Serbian merchandise exports reached €3.21 billion in June, up 9% year on year, while imports increased 17.3% to €3.99 billion. Seasonally adjusted exports rose 4% from May, but imports accelerated by 12.7%. The monthly figures contrast with the first-half trend, in which export growth was substantially faster than import growth. The June acceleration demonstrates that stronger domestic activity and investment can quickly increase demand for imported goods.
Energy remains a major component of that import requirement. Crude oil was Serbia’s largest individual import item in June at approximately $214 million, followed by retail medicines at $181 million. Electricity imports reached $82 million, automotive parts approximately $56 million, and natural gas $47 million.
Three of the five largest individual import categories were therefore directly associated with energy. Serbia imports oil and gas because domestic production does not cover requirements, while electricity purchases increase when domestic generation cannot fully meet demand. Industrial expansion also requires imported machinery, components and raw materials. The merchandise deficit consequently reflects both consumption and the inputs required for economic production.
Energy investment affects the external balance
Energy infrastructure represents an area where additional domestic capacity could influence future trade flows. New wind, solar, hydro and storage projects would not eliminate cross-border electricity trading, but additional domestic generation could reduce the need for expensive imports during periods of weak domestic production The increase in June electricity imports is particularly relevant as Serbia has moved from a historically more consistent electricity-surplus position toward greater exposure to imports during periods of weaker generation.
Each additional €100 million of imported electricity or gas increases the merchandise deficit by the corresponding amount. Conversely, new industrial capacity can strengthen the external balance when it generates genuinely additional exports without requiring an equivalent increase in imported inputs. This makes the domestic value created by foreign investment particularly important. Gross export figures do not by themselves indicate how much value remains in Serbia. Assembly operations can produce substantial export revenues while importing much of the machinery, components and materials used in production.
Greater localisation of suppliers can increase the domestic contribution of export-oriented investment. In the automotive sector, for example, production of more components, electronics, plastics, metal products and battery-related systems in Serbia would increase domestic value associated with vehicles assembled at the Kragujevac plant. The same principle applies to machinery, electrical equipment and other manufacturing sectors supported by foreign investment.
Regional distribution of exports
Serbia’s export activity is spread across several parts of the country. Vojvodina generated 29.6% of total exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia with 25.4%, Southern and Eastern Serbia with 23%, and Belgrade with 21%. Imports were considerably more concentrated in the capital region. Belgrade accounted for 43.3% of total imports, while Vojvodina represented 30.6%. The regional export structure includes different industrial bases. Vojvodina combines agriculture, food processing, petrochemicals, machinery and foreign-owned manufacturing. Šumadija includes the Kragujevac automotive cluster, while Southern and Eastern Serbia benefit from copper production around Bor and manufacturing activity in locations including Niš.
Services strengthen the external position
Merchandise trade is only one component of Serbia’s external accounts. The country also maintains a structural surplus in services, led by ICT, business services and transport. During the first four months of 2026, Serbia recorded a €923 million services surplus, an increase of almost 18% year on year. Services exports reached approximately €4.9 billion, while imports were around €4 billion.
ICT and professional business activities remain important parts of this higher-value export base. The combination of goods and services therefore provides a broader picture of Serbia’s foreign-exchange generating capacity. Manufacturing exports such as vehicles, copper and wiring appear in merchandise statistics, while software development and business services supplied to foreign clients are recorded in the services account. The first-half merchandise figures show exports increasing by 8.3%, compared with 3.7% growth in imports, while the deficit contracted by 14.1% and import coverage rose to 82.9%.
The main export categories included vehicle wiring, passenger cars, copper ore, refined copper and automotive components, while major import requirements continued to include oil, medicines, electricity, gas and industrial components. June’s 17.3% increase in imports shows that the improvement in the cumulative trade balance remains sensitive to domestic demand, energy requirements and investment-related imports. At the same time, Serbia’s expanding automotive production, copper output, manufacturing base, food industry and technology services are adding export capacity, with total merchandise trade reaching €39.65 billion in the first half of 2026.
