Serbian industrial exporters are facing a new split between electricity costs and carbon liabilities as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026. The first CBAM certificate prices were €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ in the first quarter and €75.28 in the second quarter. For Serbian steel, aluminium, fertiliser and cement producers, renewable electricity can reduce power-price exposure, but it does not automatically eliminate CBAM costs on exported products.
Renewable PPAs offer only part of the solution
A Serbian factory buying domestic electricity, an exporter of CBAM-covered products and a company physically exporting electricity into the EU face different regulatory treatment. For HBIS Group Serbia, which operates the Smederevo steelworks and Šabac tinplate facility, renewable power can improve electricity-cost predictability but does not remove emissions from blast-furnace ironmaking, coke consumption and other direct steelmaking processes.
HBIS has designed capacity of approximately 2.2 million tonnes of finished steel annually and employs around 5,000 people. Its CBAM management therefore requires production-level data linking emissions, input materials, electricity consumption and EU import declarations. Impol Seval in Sevojno has a different exposure. The company, controlled by Slovenia’s Impol Group, produced approximately 52,632 tonnes in 2024, up 29.1% year on year. As a rolling producer, its CBAM position depends on purchased aluminium inputs, upstream embedded emissions and the emissions generated during processing. Renewable electricity is particularly relevant to rolling, reheating and finishing operations, but it cannot remove emissions already embedded in aluminium slabs, ingots or recycled inputs. Impol has targeted a 58% reduction in emissions intensity per tonne of aluminium by 2030, compared with 2021.
Fertiliser and cement producers face process emissions
Elixir Group operates phosphoric-acid and fertiliser production at Prahovo, with annual capacity of approximately 165,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid and 300,000 tonnes of NPK fertiliser. The group invested €179 million in 2025 under its Prahovo 2027 programme and raised RSD4.1 billion, around €35 million, through a five-year green bond with a 6% fixed annual coupon. More than 70% of production has historically been exported. For Elixir, CBAM exposure depends not only on electricity but also on feedstock, ammonia-related emissions, process heat and product formulation.
Cement producers face a similar issue. Moravacem, part of CRH, operates the Popovac plant with annual capacity of around 1.35 million tonnes of cement and binders. Holcim Serbia operates Beočin, while Titan Cementara Kosjerić is another major producer. For cement, the largest emissions sources remain clinker production and thermal fuel consumption, making clinker ratios, fuel mix, kiln efficiency and alternative fuels key decarbonisation factors.
Electricity exports have separate CBAM rules
The treatment changes when Serbian electricity itself is exported into the EU. Using verified actual emissions instead of the default factor requires a specific evidence chain. The electricity must be covered by a qualifying PPA involving the authorised CBAM declarant, while the generating facility must meet connection and congestion requirements and remain below 550 grams of fossil CO₂ per kWh. Generation and cross-border nominations must correspond for intervals of no more than one hour, with the chain certified by an accredited verifier.
A guarantee of origin or a general claim of “100% renewable electricity” is not sufficient on its own. At the second-quarter certificate price of €75.28 per tonne, an indicative electricity emissions range of 0.5–0.8 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh corresponds to approximately €37.64–€60.22/MWh in CBAM exposure. For an EU buyer importing 100 GWh annually, that would imply a potential cost of around €3.8 million–€6 million per year if actual-emissions treatment were unavailable.
Renewable investment is expanding
Serbia’s first two renewable auctions allocated nearly 1.3 GW of wind and solar capacity. The second round attracted 41 proposals and awarded support for projects totalling up to 645 MW, with bids reaching €50.9/MWh for solar and €53.6/MWh for wind.
Enlight Renewable Energy’s 94.4 MW Pupin wind farm had a disclosed investment cost of approximately €144 million, including around €91.4 million from the EBRD and Erste. Masdar and Taaleri Energia reached financial close on the 154 MW Čibuk 2 project with €144 million in non-recourse debt from UniCredit and Erste. The project shares a grid connection with the existing 158 MW Čibuk 1. Grid access remains important for renewable economics. A 12–18 month connection delay can reduce wind equity IRR by around 2–3 percentage points, while solar projects can lose approximately 2.5–4 percentage points.
CBAM data becomes a commercial requirement
Industrial buyers need PPAs that clearly separate electricity prices from balancing, network charges, environmental attributes and CBAM-related costs. Contracts also need reliable metering, interval data, audit rights and arrangements for periods that fail actual-emissions eligibility. The first annual CBAM declaration for 2026 imports is due by 30 September 2027, with certificate purchases beginning in February 2027. The European Commission expects the first accredited CBAM verifiers around September 2026.
For Serbian exporters, renewable electricity can therefore protect operating costs, but the commercial value ultimately depends on whether power, production data and emissions information can be reliably connected to the products crossing the EU border.
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