Foreign-currency-linked borrowing accounts for approximately €12.35 billion of Serbian banks’ claims on private companies, representing 76.8% of the relevant corporate portfolio at the end of August 2026, according to calculations based on data from the National Bank of Serbia (NBS). The financing structure makes the relationship between export revenues, exchange-rate stability and borrowing costs an important factor in corporate credit assessments.
Of the total, approximately €11.75 billion consisted of foreign-currency-indexed claims, while a further €599 million was denominated directly in foreign currencies. Claims on private companies denominated in Serbian dinars amounted to approximately €3.73 billion.
Currency Exposure and Corporate Cash Flow
Foreign-currency-linked financing can be commercially appropriate for exporters that generate substantial revenues in euros, particularly when loan repayments are aligned with operating cash flows and the currencies in which companies earn their income. The same financing structure can expose borrowers to additional risks when revenues are predominantly in dinars or when businesses depend heavily on imported raw materials, energy and equipment. Under these conditions, exchange-rate movements and changes in procurement costs can affect companies’ capacity to service debt.
Banks assessing industrial investment therefore need to examine the relationship between borrowers’ revenue currencies, repayment obligations and operating expenditure, alongside the stability of their underlying business activities.
Industrial Pressures and EU Market Requirements
These considerations are particularly relevant for steel and aluminium manufacturers facing weaker production, higher imports and additional documentation requirements in European markets.
For exporters covered by the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), exposure extends beyond the cost of emissions. Inadequate documentation, uncertainty over the origin of precursor materials or difficulties establishing product-level emissions data can affect commercial relationships with European buyers. Lenders financing these companies need to assess the reliability of export contracts, currency mismatches, energy procurement arrangements, product competitiveness and expenditure associated with regulatory compliance.
Existing Loans and Refinancing Risk
The changing operating environment also affects existing credit portfolios. A borrower considered financially resilient when a loan was approved may have a different risk profile if electricity costs, production volumes or access to EU customers change materially. For Serbian banks, these factors are relevant to both new corporate lending and the assessment of existing loans during refinancing. Integrating trade competitiveness, energy exposure and carbon-compliance requirements into conventional credit decisions is increasingly pertinent to financing companies operating in export-oriented industrial sectors.
