Products already covered by the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) accounted for an estimated €2.209 billion of trade between Serbia and the EU in 2024, based on official sector-level data. Subsequent trade growth pushed the comparable value above €2.54 billion in 2025, while the Serbian Ministry of Finance estimates the current mechanism could generate annual carbon costs of around €140 million from 2026 under existing rules. The figures relate only to the current CBAM product scope and do not include the proposed extension to downstream manufactured goods scheduled for consideration by European Union institutions.
Electricity and Steel Dominate Existing CBAM Exposure
The most comprehensive official sector assessment found that goods currently covered by CBAM represented 11.7% of Serbia’s exports to the European Union in 2024. According to EU trade data, imports from Serbia totalled €18.879 billion that year. Applying the 11.7% share produces an estimated €2.209 billion in trade currently falling within the mechanism.
Electricity represented the largest category, accounting for 4.7% of Serbia’s exports to the EU, equivalent to approximately €887 million. Iron and steel contributed 4.5%, or around €850 million, while aluminium accounted for 2%, representing approximately €378 million.
Fertilisers were valued at around €94 million, cement at approximately €19 million, while hydrogen remained negligible within the current trade structure.
Together, electricity and iron and steel accounted for nearly 79% of the estimated value of Serbia’s existing CBAM-covered exports. This concentration has focused domestic attention on electricity generation, steel production and the carbon intensity of major industrial facilities, although it does not reflect the wider manufacturing exposure expected if CBAM is extended to finished and semi-finished products containing steel or aluminium.
Trade Growth Increased Covered Export Value in 2025
European Union imports from Serbia increased by 12.2% in 2025, reaching €21.185 billion. The Serbian Ministry of Finance subsequently estimated that more than 12% of the country’s exports to the EU were already within the existing CBAM scope. The ministry also identified more than 3,500 companies as directly or indirectly linked to sectors covered by the mechanism, while approximately 1,000 companies exported covered or potentially covered products to the European Union during 2025. Applying the ministry’s minimum 12% estimate to the EU’s reported import value produces a conservative current-scope trade estimate of more than €2.54 billion for 2025.
Although this is not an official CN8 customs classification total, as it combines Serbia’s export-share assessment with the EU’s import valuation, it provides a minimum estimate of trade subject to the current CBAM framework before any downstream product expansion.
Ministry Estimates Carbon Costs Under Current Framework
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the existing CBAM mechanism could impose annual costs of approximately €140 million in 2026, increasing to around €161 million by 2029, assuming that a Serbian carbon-pricing mechanism is not recognised by the European Union for offset purposes. Under a scenario in which the EU fully recognises a carbon price paid in Serbia, the estimated annual burden would decline to between €127 million and €148 million over the same period.
The ministry’s modelling assumes a CBAM certificate price of €75.36 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent and unchanged 2025 trade volumes. These estimates relate only to products currently covered by the mechanism and do not include additional reporting obligations, contractual impacts or potential embedded-carbon costs that could arise if CBAM is expanded to selected manufactured products from 2028.
