Serbia’s agricultural sector is expected to make a significant contribution to economic growth in 2026 as crop production recovers from the severe weakness recorded a year earlier. Forecast growth in agricultural output has been raised to around 7%, from an earlier estimate of 3%, increasing the sector’s expected contribution to overall GDP growth from approximately 0.1 percentage points to 0.3 percentage points.
The stronger outlook follows an exceptionally poor agricultural season in 2025. Improved crop yields and higher planted areas are now supporting a broader recovery in production, with wheat and corn providing the clearest evidence of the sector’s rebound.
Wheat production benefits from higher planted area
Wheat yields are estimated at approximately 5.9 tonnes per hectare, which would represent the second-highest level on record. Although the projected yield is slightly below the 2025 level, an increase in the area planted with wheat is expected to lift total production by about 4.5%. The combination of expanded acreage and comparatively strong yields is therefore expected to offset the modest decline in yield and result in higher overall wheat output during 2026. Corn is expected to deliver a more pronounced recovery following the particularly weak results recorded in 2025. The estimated yield of about 5.6 tonnes per hectare is approximately 26.8% higher than the exceptionally low level achieved last year.
Agricultural supply weighs on inflation
The recovery in crop production is also affecting broader economic conditions. Increased agricultural supply has been identified as one of the principal factors behind the decline in headline inflation to 1.9%. Higher output can also replenish agricultural inventories, strengthening supply availability beyond the immediate harvest period. Larger stocks could support export availability later in 2026 and extending into 2027. The agricultural recovery is therefore influencing both the production side of the economy and consumer prices, with stronger output supporting real economic activity while greater food supply contributes to lower inflation.
Weather remains the key production risk
Despite the improved outlook, the final scale of the recovery remains dependent on weather conditions. Corn and industrial crops are particularly exposed to variations in summer temperatures and rainfall, leaving production outcomes sensitive to conditions during the growing season. That exposure also means agricultural performance can have a material effect on Serbia’s wider economic indicators. Weather-related changes in crop output can influence both inflation and economic growth, making agricultural volatility an important factor for the broader economy.
In 2026, the sector has shifted from a drag on performance to an important source of support for Serbia’s economic growth. The continuing exposure to weather conditions also highlights the importance of investment in irrigation, agricultural resilience and climate-adaptation measures as longer-term responses to production volatility.
