Serbia’s energy balance deteriorated sharply in the first half of 2026 even as domestic refinery activity began to recover, with higher import prices driving a significant increase in the country’s energy bill. The energy deficit reached approximately €2 billion in the first half of 2026. The increase was driven largely by more expensive imported energy rather than a broad increase in import volumes.
Average crude-oil import prices were 29.5% higher year on year. Crude import quantities were lower, partly because NIS did not receive crude through JANAF during January, meaning the higher import value was primarily associated with price movements.
Higher crude and petroleum-product costs increase import bill
Serbia also paid substantially more for imported petroleum products. Import prices for these products increased by around 17%, while volumes rose during periods when domestic refinery output was weaker. Between March and June, the combined imported value of oil and petroleum products increased by approximately €454.1 million compared with the same period of 2025.
The figures underline the impact of international energy prices on Serbia’s external accounts, with higher crude and petroleum-product costs increasing the country’s energy import expenditure.
Refinery output rebounds in second quarter
Domestic processing activity subsequently strengthened. Production of coke and petroleum derivatives increased 18.4% year on year in the second quarter, supporting activity in both the refining and chemical sectors. Higher domestic refinery output can reduce Serbia’s reliance on imported finished petroleum products, particularly when refinery availability is constrained. However, the recovery does not eliminate the country’s exposure to the cost of imported crude oil.
The combination of refinery dependence on crude inputs and Serbia’s position as a net energy importer leaves the oil sector directly exposed to changes in international energy markets and geopolitical developments.
Oil prices remain a direct macroeconomic risk
A renewed energy shock that pushed crude oil prices towards $120 per barrel would increase pressure on inflation, household purchasing power and industrial costs. Domestic refining capacity provides protection against some supply vulnerabilities, while the cost of crude continues to influence Serbia’s national energy account. The first-half 2026 data show that stronger refinery production can support industrial activity and reduce dependence on imported finished products, while a rise in international oil prices can simultaneously cause a rapid deterioration in the country’s overall energy balance.
