Serbia’s retail sector continued to expand in June 2026, with turnover increasing by 6.6% in nominal terms and 4.3% in real terms compared with the same month a year earlier, according to data cited by Dnevni list Danas. During the first six months of 2026, retail sales increased by 8.7% at current prices and by 7% after adjusting for inflation, indicating that households increased the volume of purchased goods rather than growth being driven only by higher prices. Household consumption remained one of the main contributors to economic activity, supported by higher wages, slower headline inflation and continued spending from the public sector and pension system.
Food Sales Lead First-Half Retail Growth
Food, beverages and tobacco recorded the strongest performance during the first half of the year, with real turnover increasing by 6%. Motor fuel sales grew by 3.9%, while non-food product sales increased by 2.4% in real terms. The strongest gains in essential categories indicate that improved purchasing power has encouraged households to increase spending after periods of reduced consumption during the inflationary period.
June’s result, however, represented a slower pace compared with previous months. Real retail turnover increased by 6.2% in May and 5.6% in April. In May, sales volumes increased by 7.1% for food, beverages and tobacco, 6.6% for motor fuels and 5% for non-food products, showing stronger growth across categories than recorded in June.
Wage Growth Supports Consumer Demand
Income growth remained a key factor behind retail performance. Average net earnings reached RSD 118,398 in May, increasing by 11.3% in nominal terms and 8.2% in real terms during the first five months of 2026, according to the Statistical Office of Serbia.
The median salary stood at RSD 93,277, meaning that half of employees earned no more than that amount. The difference between average and median earnings highlights uneven income distribution, with aggregate wage growth supporting overall consumption while many households continue to face financial constraints.
Inflation Slows but Service Costs Remain Elevated
Consumer price growth slowed to 2.7% year on year in June, compared with 3.5% in May, partly due to lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, according to data cited. Core inflation remained higher at approximately 4.6%, reflecting continued increases in service prices and other less volatile categories.
The difference between headline and core inflation continues to affect household budgets. While lower food inflation improves purchasing power, costs related to housing, utilities, transport, healthcare and services remain elevated. In May, prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and related fuels increased by 9.5% year on year. Transport prices rose by 8.4%, while service inflation reached 5.9%, according to Raiffeisen Bank data.
Fuel Costs Remain a Policy Challenge
Fuel prices remain one of the main areas of sensitivity for consumer costs. Serbia introduced temporary excise reductions, regulated prices, strategic reserves and export restrictions to limit the impact of higher international oil prices on domestic consumers. These measures helped reduce inflation pressure but also shifted part of the cost burden onto public finances and energy-sector balance sheets.
The International Monetary Fund has argued that temporary fuel excise reductions should be removed to avoid prolonged subsidisation and maintain fiscal discipline, according to information cited by Reuters.
Retail Employment Declines Despite Higher Sales
Retail growth has developed alongside a decline in registered employment in the sector. Employment in wholesale and retail trade and motor-vehicle repair decreased by 4,276 workers in the second quarter compared with the same period of 2025, according to the Statistical Office of Serbia.
The decline may reflect changes in business models, including stronger productivity, market-share gains by larger retail chains and expansion of digital sales channels without equivalent workforce growth. Smaller retailers continue to face pressure from rising wages, higher rents, compliance requirements and logistics costs.
For banks and consumer-oriented companies, first-half retail data remain supportive, with stronger real wages and lower inflation improving household demand conditions. Slower June growth, weaker non-food sales and differences between average and median earnings indicate that consumer strength remains uneven across households.
