The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in June. The deposit facility stood at 4.50%, while the lending facility was set at 7.00%. In its latest reporting, the NBS said lending to corporates and households accelerated to 17.1% year over year in April.
Lending growth pointed to stronger activity and demand, while the policy-rate level indicated that borrowing costs remain elevated. For SMEs, the combination of faster credit growth and a higher policy-rate environment raises attention on how loans affect liquidity.
Inflation risks and energy-cost sensitivity
Inflation developments also shaped the backdrop for credit decisions. In May, consumer prices rose 3.5% year over year, with transport and several service-related categories increasing month over month. The NBS warned that oil and commodity-price shocks could push inflation above the target band temporarily later in 2026 or early 2027.
The IMF echoed the same theme in May. IMF staff said Serbian monetary policy should remain cautious and may need to tighten if higher energy costs feed into long-term inflation expectations or second-round price effects. The IMF also warned that higher energy prices and uncertainty could weigh on private investment and consumption.
For companies seeking financing, interest-rate risk and cost risk were highlighted as linked considerations. A business facing higher fuel, wage, rent, or imported-input costs may also require additional working capital. If that working capital is financed at relatively high rates, margins can compress quickly.
Borrowing purpose, loan maturity, and cash-flow stress tests
The guidance for SMEs began with separating productive borrowing from defensive borrowing. Productive borrowing is described as funding projects that improve capacity, efficiency, export potential, or cash generation. Defensive borrowing covers delayed receivables, excess inventory, weak pricing, or operating losses.
A second rule focused on matching loan maturity to the business purpose. Short-term credit should finance short-term working-capital needs rather than long-life assets. Equipment, vehicles, technology upgrades, and facility investments should be financed with maturities reflecting useful life and payback period.
A third rule required cash-flow stress testing under adverse conditions. SMEs were advised to model scenarios including higher fuel costs, customers paying 15 days later than planned, wages rising faster than expected, or borrowing costs moving up. The approach was framed around whether a plan works beyond ideal conditions.
Payment discipline as SEPA takes effect
Payment discipline was presented as increasingly relevant due to Serbia’s growing connection to European payment flows. SEPA payments became operational on 5 May 2026, aimed at reducing friction for euro transactions with European partners. The source also linked faster payments to improved cash conversion for SMEs and exporters.
The potential benefit was tied to operational updates in invoicing and reconciliation processes. Companies were described as needing to adjust bank processes alongside invoicing practices to capture improvements from faster settlement. Operational changes were positioned as part of maintaining liquidity.
The material also pointed to internal cash management before taking new loans. It cited faster receivables collection, better inventory management, renegotiated supplier terms, and clearer customer payment policies as ways to free up cash without new financing.
Bank products and credit structuring for 2026
Banks were described as having an opportunity to compete on advice rather than only rates. SMEs were said to need practical products including working-capital lines tied to receivables and invoice-finance options. The guidance also referenced transparent fee structures and currency-risk guidance alongside digital tools that help owners monitor liquidity.
The credit market was characterized as open but not as a substitute for cash-flow management practices. In 2026, SMEs were advised to borrow with a specific purpose, a measurable return, and a realistic downside scenario . At a 5.75% policy rate environment, cash-flow discipline was described as a strategy element .
