The National Bank of Serbia kept its key policy rate unchanged in its June decision at 5.75%, with the deposit facility at 4.50% and the lending facility at 7.00%. The central bank reported real year-on-year GDP growth of 3.2% in Q1 2026, above the flash estimate. It also said April indicators pointed to positive trends in industry, retail trade and tourism. The NBS’s May projection remains for roughly 3% GDP growth in 2026.
In its assessment of inflation dynamics, the NBS linked recent acceleration to global oil prices and domestic petroleum-product prices. It warned that inflation could temporarily move above the upper bound of the target band toward the end of 2026 or at the beginning of 2027 if energy and commodity pressures persist. The latest consumer-price figures show inflation is contained but not eliminated. Serbian consumer prices rose 0.3% month over month in May 2026 and 3.5% year over year.
Inflation stays within limits as price categories broaden
Transport prices increased by 1.0% month over month in May 2026. Other categories recorded higher prices as well, including housing, utilities, health, clothing, furnishings and hospitality-related items. The shift for businesses is described as a change in inflation’s impact rather than a repeat of earlier shocks. Fuel, logistics, wages, imported inputs and financing costs are cited as sources of cost volatility.
The trade-off for companies is tied to how they manage those cost drivers while demand remains supportive. Firms able to pass through costs, hedge exposure, shorten receivables cycles or improve productivity are positioned differently from those relying mainly on top-line demand. The operating environment is therefore more demanding even as activity continues to expand. This includes execution factors such as payment terms and export competitiveness.
Trade improves on exports while SEPA expands euro payments
External trade data for January–April 2026 show growth in Serbia’s euro-denominated trade flows. Total external trade rose 3.9% year over year to EUR 25.9 billion. Exports increased 8.2% to EUR 11.78 billion, while imports rose only 0.5% to EUR 14.11 billion. The goods deficit narrowed by 26.1%, and the export-import coverage ratio improved to 83.5%, from 77.5% a year earlier.
The European Union accounted for 59% of Serbia’s total external trade during the period. Within that structure, export-linked companies, logistics providers, automotive suppliers, business services and EU-facing manufacturers are described as relatively well-positioned. Import-heavy distributors, fuel-dependent operators and highly leveraged SMEs face a more difficult margin equation.
A key operational development reported for May was Serbia’s connection to SEPA payments for euro transactions with EU counterparts. On 5 May 2026, 18 Serbian banks joined SEPA schemes, supporting faster, cheaper and more reliable euro transfers with the EU. The European Commission estimated potential savings for individuals and businesses of up to EUR 400 million. The NBS said the system should simplify international business and support Serbia’s integration into European supply chains.
NIS license renewal raises near-term energy uncertainty
The biggest immediate risk highlighted is energy-related uncertainty tied to refinery operations. NIS operates Serbia’s only oil refinery and has applied for a new U.S. license to continue operating beyond 16 June 2026, when its current license expires. Reuters reported that the company is under U.S. sanctions due to Russian ownership.
The same reporting cited negotiations involving Hungary’s MOL and a Russian-held stake as central to the issue . In parallel with these developments, businesses are expected to factor energy exposure into planning alongside debt costs and wage growth.
The NBS framework also points to a broader set of variables affecting corporate conditions in the second half of 2026, including payment terms and export competitiveness . With demand still present across parts of the economy, execution considerations such as cash-flow discipline remain central for companies operating under higher cost volatility .
