Serbia’s industrial producer prices increased 7.4% year-on-year in June 2026, driven primarily by higher costs in mining, energy, metal ores, refined petroleum products, chemicals and basic metals. The total industrial producer-price index reached 107.4 compared with June 2025, while remaining unchanged from May 2026 at 100.0.
- Energy and intermediate goods lead industrial cost growth
- Consumer goods show limited price pressure
- Mining becomes strongest inflation driver
- Manufacturing prices rise amid petroleum and chemical pressure
- Metals continue to influence industrial costs
- Several manufacturing segments record declines
- Food and utility-related industries show moderate increases
- Upstream sectors shape Serbia’s industrial price environment
The June data indicate that industrial cost growth is becoming increasingly concentrated in upstream sectors rather than spreading evenly across the entire production chain. During the first six months of 2026, industrial producer prices were 4.4% higher than in the same period of 2025, showing that elevated input costs have continued beyond short-term monthly fluctuations. Compared with the 2025 average, the June index stood at 107.3, while compared with December 2025 it reached 106.9.
Energy and intermediate goods lead industrial cost growth
Energy remained the strongest contributor to Serbia’s industrial producer-price increase. Energy prices were 17.1% higher year-on-year in June 2026, with the index reaching 117.1. Compared with the 2025 average, energy prices were at 114.9, while the index compared with December 2025 stood at 114.2.
Despite the strong annual increase, energy prices declined 0.7% compared with May 2026, indicating some monthly easing without changing the broader annual cost trend. Intermediate goods excluding energy also recorded significant increases. The category reached an index of 107.7 year-on-year, 108.2 compared with the 2025 average, and 108.7 compared with December 2025.
The movement reflects continued cost pressure across industrial supply chains, including manufacturing inputs, construction materials, machinery components, metal processing, chemicals and export-oriented production. Capital goods recorded a smaller but still positive increase. Prices were 3.1% higher than in June 2025 and 3.2% above the 2025 average. Monthly prices for capital goods increased 0.7% compared with May, indicating continued pressure on equipment, machinery and investment-related procurement costs.
Consumer goods show limited price pressure
Producer-price increases were less pronounced in consumer-oriented industrial categories. Durable consumer goods recorded a 1.4% annual increase, with the index at 101.4, while non-durable consumer goods increased 2.7%, reaching 102.7.
The relatively moderate movement in finished consumer goods indicates that the main source of industrial inflation remains upstream production costs rather than broad increases in final manufactured products.
Mining becomes strongest inflation driver
Mining recorded the largest sectoral increase in June, with producer prices rising 30.1% year-on-year. The mining producer-price index reached 130.1 compared with June 2025, while standing at 126.9 compared with the 2025 average and 128.2 compared with December 2025.
Mining prices also increased 7.2% from May 2026, making the sector the strongest monthly and annual contributor to industrial producer-price growth. Metal ore extraction recorded particularly strong increases. Prices were 41.3% higher year-on-year and increased 17.2% compared with May 2026. The metal ore index reached 135.8 compared with the 2025 average and 133.8 compared with December 2025, reflecting significant upward movement in mineral-related production costs.
Crude oil and natural gas extraction also remained elevated, with prices 20.4% higher than in June 2025 and 40.7% above December 2025. The monthly trend moved sharply lower, with the June index at 79.9 compared with May 2026, representing a 20.1% decline. The data show that while annual energy extraction costs remained high, monthly pricing conditions changed significantly during June.
Manufacturing prices rise amid petroleum and chemical pressure
Manufacturing producer prices increased 7.3% year-on-year, matching the overall industrial producer-price increase. The manufacturing index was 99.8 compared with May 2026, showing a monthly decline of 0.2%, while first-half manufacturing prices were 4.2% higher than in the same period of 2025. The largest manufacturing-sector increase came from coke and refined petroleum products, where prices rose 43.1% year-on-year.
The category reached an index of 137.6 compared with the 2025 average and 141.7 compared with December 2025. During the first half of 2026, producer prices in this segment were 19.3% higher than a year earlier. Refined petroleum products remain an important cost factor across transport, logistics, industrial fuel use, construction materials, agriculture and chemical production.
Chemical and chemical-product prices also recorded strong annual growth. Prices were 16.1% higher compared with June 2025, with the index at 116.0 against the 2025 average and 117.3 compared with December 2025. Chemical prices declined 3.9% month-on-month in June, reaching an index of 96.1 compared with May.
Metals continue to influence industrial costs
Basic metal prices increased 13.4% year-on-year and were 14.0% higher than in December 2025. During the first half of 2026, basic-metal producer prices increased 9.0% compared with the same period of 2025.
The category remains strategically important because basic metals influence costs in machinery manufacturing, construction, automotive supply chains, electrical systems and energy infrastructure projects. Higher metal prices can strengthen revenues for producers, but they also increase procurement costs for industrial users and infrastructure investors.
Several manufacturing segments record declines
Not all manufacturing categories experienced price increases. Paper and paper-product prices declined 1.7% year-on-year, while first-half prices were 2.8% lower than in the same period of 2025.
Computer, electronic and optical product prices decreased 0.4% year-on-year, while machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified declined 0.8%. Other transport equipment recorded the largest manufacturing-sector decline, falling 4.9% year-on-year and 6.1% in the first half of 2026. These movements indicate weaker pricing conditions in some industrial segments, reflecting differences in demand, competition and production cycles.
Food and utility-related industries show moderate increases
Food manufacturing prices increased 1.6% year-on-year and 2.4% in the first half of 2026.
Other moderate annual increases included:
- beverages: 4.1%;
- tobacco products: 5.2%;
- pharmaceuticals: 5.7%;
- rubber and plastics: 2.6%;
- non-metallic mineral products: 3.4%.
Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply prices increased 3.9% year-on-year. The index remained unchanged from May 2026 and December 2025 at 100.0, while first-half prices were also 3.9% higher than in the same period of 2025. Water supply, wastewater management and waste-related activities recorded a 4.4% annual increase, with first-half prices rising 4.8%.
Upstream sectors shape Serbia’s industrial price environment
The June figures show that Serbia’s industrial producer-price increase is concentrated in sectors closest to energy, extraction and raw-material processing.
The strongest annual increases were recorded in:
- mining: 30.1%;
- metal ore extraction: 41.3%;
- coke and refined petroleum products: 43.1%;
- energy products: 17.1%;
- chemicals: 16.1%;
- basic metals: 13.4%.
At the same time, several downstream manufacturing categories recorded limited growth or declines. For the first six months of 2026, industrial producer prices were 4.4% higher year-on-year, with mining increasing 14.0%, manufacturing rising 4.2%, electricity and gas supply up 3.9%, and water and waste services up 4.8%. The June data show a Serbian industrial economy experiencing uneven cost pressures, with upstream sectors driving producer-price growth while many finished-goods categories remain comparatively stable.
