Serbia’s export-oriented industrial producer prices increased 8.0% year-on-year in June 2026, driven by sharp price increases in energy, mining, metal ores, refined petroleum products, chemicals and basic metals. The producer-price index for industrial products intended for export reached 108.0 compared with June 2025. On a monthly basis, export producer prices increased 1.2% compared with May 2026, while the June level was 8.2% above the 2025 average and 7.9% higher than December 2025. The latest figures show that Serbia’s export price environment is being shaped primarily by upstream industrial sectors linked to raw materials, energy transformation and industrial inputs rather than by broad increases across finished goods.
- Energy and mining drive export price growth
- Metal ore extraction records sharp increase
- Manufacturing exports record moderate increase
- Chemicals and metals maintain upward pressure
- Intermediate goods show supply-chain pressure
- Food and consumer manufacturing remain relatively stable
- First-half figures confirm broader export price trend
- Export sector increasingly shaped by upstream industries
Energy and mining drive export price growth
Energy recorded the strongest acceleration among export-oriented industrial categories.
Export producer prices for energy products were 44.0% higher than in June 2025 and 40.4% above December 2025. The monthly movement was particularly strong, with the energy index reaching 133.5 compared with May 2026, representing a 33.5% increase. Mining recorded an even larger annual increase. Export producer prices in the sector were 52.2% higher year-on-year, 44.9% above the 2025 average, and 42.2% higher than December 2025. Mining prices also increased 21.0% compared with May 2026, with the index reaching 121.0.
Metal ore extraction records sharp increase
Within mining, metal ore extraction was the largest contributor to export price growth. Export prices for metal ores increased 54.2% compared with June 2025, while rising 46.5% above the 2025 average and 43.8% above December 2025. The category also recorded a monthly increase of 21.6% compared with May 2026.
The movement reflects stronger pricing conditions in Serbia’s mineral-export sector, which is closely connected with international commodity markets, industrial buyers and downstream metal-processing activity. Higher ore prices can increase revenues for mining companies, while also affecting input costs for processors, smelters and manufacturers relying on mineral materials.
Manufacturing exports record moderate increase
Manufacturing export prices rose at a slower pace than mining but continued to show significant growth. The manufacturing export-price index was 6.8% higher than in June 2025, 7.1% above the 2025 average, and 6.9% higher than December 2025. On a monthly basis, manufacturing export prices increased 0.6%.
The strongest manufacturing increase came from coke and refined petroleum products, where export producer prices climbed 46.8% year-on-year. The category was also 42.2% above the 2025 average and 43.6% higher than December 2025, while the monthly increase reached 35.9%. Refined petroleum products remain closely linked to energy markets, logistics costs, industrial fuel demand and broader production expenses, making the category a major contributor to export price growth.
Chemicals and metals maintain upward pressure
Chemical and chemical-product export prices remained elevated in June. Prices were 15.5% higher year-on-year and 17.5% above December 2025. However, the monthly index declined to 95.3 compared with May, representing a 4.7% decrease. The data indicate that chemicals remained expensive compared with previous periods, although monthly conditions showed some easing.
Basic metals also continued to record significant increases. Export producer prices in the sector were:
- 13.6% higher year-on-year;
- 17.2% above the 2025 average;
- 14.4% higher than December 2025.
During the first half of 2026, basic-metal export prices increased 9.7% compared with the same period of 2025.
The sector remains important for Serbia’s industrial export structure because it connects mining, energy costs, manufacturing supply chains and international markets.
Intermediate goods show supply-chain pressure
Export prices for intermediate goods excluding energy increased 9.8% year-on-year and were 11.0% above December 2025. The increase highlights continued pressure across industrial supply chains, particularly for metals, chemicals, materials, components and semi-finished products. By comparison, other product groups recorded smaller increases.
Capital goods export prices rose 1.6% year-on-year, durable consumer goods increased 3.1%, and non-durable consumer goods increased 4.1%. The difference between upstream and downstream categories shows that export price growth remains concentrated closer to raw materials and industrial inputs.
Food and consumer manufacturing remain relatively stable
Food manufacturing export prices increased 4.4% year-on-year, although they declined slightly by 0.1% compared with May 2026. Beverage export prices increased 4.3% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month. The food and beverage sectors recorded moderate price growth compared with mining, energy and industrial materials, where price movements were significantly stronger.
Several manufacturing categories showed limited growth or declines. Wearing apparel export prices decreased 0.7% year-on-year and were 1.8% lower than December 2025. Paper and paper-product export prices declined 2.4% year-on-year. Other transport equipment prices fell 0.4% year-on-year and declined 2.8% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025.
First-half figures confirm broader export price trend
The January–June 2026 data show that June’s increase was part of a wider trend.
During the first six months of 2026, total export producer prices were 3.9% higher than in the same period of 2025 and 4.2% above the 2025 average.
Sector-level first-half increases included:
- mining export prices: +20.5% year-on-year;
- metal ore extraction: +21.2%;
- manufacturing export prices: +3.4%;
- refined petroleum products: +6.3%;
- chemicals: +5.9%;
- pharmaceuticals: +6.5%;
- basic metals: +9.7%.
Export sector increasingly shaped by upstream industries
The June data show a two-speed export pricing structure in Serbia’s industrial economy. Mining, energy-related products, refined petroleum, chemicals and metals are experiencing strong price increases, while several downstream manufacturing categories remain stable or weaker.
For exporters in upstream sectors, higher prices can support nominal revenues. However, companies across the industrial supply chain remain exposed to energy costs, commodity-market movements, input contracts and foreign buyer demand. The latest figures underline the growing role of resource-linked industries in Serbia’s export pricing structure, with energy, extraction and industrial transformation sectors determining much of the movement in export producer prices during 2026.
