Serbian exports increased by 8.2% in euro terms to €11.78bn in the first four months of 2026, while imports rose 0.5% to €14.11bn. The trade deficit narrowed by 26.1%, and the export-import coverage ratio improved to 83.5% from 77.5% a year earlier. European Union countries accounted for 59% of total external trade.
The National Bank of Serbia said GDP growth since the beginning of the year has been supported by both domestic demand and net exports. April indicators pointed to positive developments in industry, retail and tourism. Industrial production in April was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.
Export manufacturing expected to lead second-half performance
The second-half outlook points to export manufacturing remaining the clearest outperformer. Automotive suppliers, electrical machinery producers, specialised components, rubber and plastics, selected metals, industrial packaging and logistics services are expected to benefit if EU demand remains stable.
The base case is high-single-digit export growth for H2 2026, broadly consistent with the January-April trend. Companies in automotive and electrical machinery could reach low-double-digit growth, particularly where they already have repeat orders from EU customers.
Margin pressure is still part of the picture as sales growth does not automatically translate into profitability. Labour costs are rising, energy remains volatile and freight is exposed to the NIS situation. Interest rates are described as restrictive, with the NBS keeping its key policy rate at 5.75% in June.
Cash-flow conditions and working-capital costs remain key
The restrictive rate environment affects firms financing inventories, inputs and receivables through credit markets. In this context, companies with faster cash conversion cycles are positioned differently from larger producers with longer production cycles and slower receivables.
A component maker that ships quickly, invoices in euros, collects on time and manages inventory tightly is described as better placed than a producer facing slower cash collection. The operational structure of payments is also expected to influence invoicing and collection timing.
SEPA rollout begins May 5 for euro transactions
Serbia’s SEPA payments became operational on May 5, with 18 domestic banks handling SEPA payments for citizens and businesses. The European Commission said the change would make euro transactions with EU counterparties faster, cheaper and more reliable.
The Commission estimate cited potential savings of up to €400mn for individuals and businesses . For manufacturers, faster euro payments are described as reducing friction across invoicing, collections, supplier payments and cash-flow planning.
Main external risks tied to Europe, energy and wages
The biggest external risk identified is Europe itself, given that Serbia’s exporters are tied to EU industrial demand. The text highlights exposure to Germany and Italy as well as central European supply chains.
A downturn in European manufacturing would be expected to soften order books quickly. Energy is flagged as a second risk for export plants relying on fuel-intensive logistics or imported inputs, while wage competition—particularly for skilled technicians, engineers and production managers—is identified as a third risk.
Mid-sized suppliers seen as second-half beneficiaries
Second-half winners are expected to include mid-sized suppliers already embedded in EU supply chains but able to adapt pricing and production. Logistics firms, certification advisers, packaging producers and warehouse operators are also expected to benefit from the same trend.
The export story is described as shifting beyond foreign investors using Serbia primarily as a production platform. It increasingly depends on whether domestic and foreign-owned suppliers can move up the value chain while maintaining cost discipline .
