Serbia’s business risk profile for the second half of 2026 is increasingly linked to fuel-related uncertainty rather than demand, wages or interest rates. The issue centers on NIS, the Russian-owned Serbian oil company that runs the country’s only refinery. NIS has applied for a new US licence to keep operating after June 16, when its current licence expires, according to Reuters. Washington is also seeking divestment of the Russian stake.
NIS sanctions licensing and the domestic supply question
NIS has argued that continued operations are important for orderly supply to Serbia’s domestic market. In parallel, US authorities are pushing for changes to the Russian ownership structure. The uncertainty has shifted the sanctions topic from a sector-specific matter into a broader corporate concern. For companies, the focus extends beyond short-term movements in pump prices.
Businesses are assessing whether fuel becomes an unpredictable cost rather than a stable input. Transport operators are among the first to feel that exposure, but it can spread to food distribution, construction, agriculture, retail, tourism, manufacturing and e-commerce. The National Bank of Serbia has connected inflation dynamics to petroleum-product pricing and global oil developments. In June, it kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%.
Central bank signals on oil-driven inflation
The central bank said April’s inflation acceleration was driven almost entirely by global oil prices and domestic petroleum-product prices. It warned that oil and other commodity prices could push inflation temporarily above the top of the target band late this year or early next year. The warning comes as Serbia enters the period with otherwise resilient macroeconomic indicators. Real GDP rose 3.2% year on year in the first quarter, and the central bank expects about 3% growth for 2026.
Lending to companies and households is also growing rapidly. Even so, an energy shock can alter cost and margin calculations quickly by raising costs and tightening margins. Management teams may then face choices between absorbing losses or raising prices in a still price-sensitive market. This link between fuel costs and broader financial conditions is part of how fuel exposure is being treated inside boardrooms.
Shareholder talks with MOL and potential ownership restructuring
The NIS ownership discussions add a geopolitical dimension to the licensing question. Serbia has completed talks on a shareholder agreement with Hungary’s MOL, according to Reuters. Serbia already holds 29.9% of NIS, while Gazprom Neft and Gazprom together hold the majority. Under the discussed structure, Serbia would buy an additional 5% if the sale of the Russian-held stake to MOL is approved by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
MOL has also pledged that the Pancevo refinery would continue operating at at least its recent average annual capacity. The base case for the second half is not presented as a full fuel-supply rupture. Instead, Serbia, NIS, MOL and US authorities all have incentives to avoid a disorderly outcome. The more likely scenario is described as regulatory extensions alongside ownership restructuring and higher risk premia in fuel-sensitive contracts.
Contract terms and cost volatility across sectors
Even without a complete disruption, companies may adjust how they manage fuel-related costs through contract design and inventory planning. Logistics firms are expected to push harder for fuel-adjustment clauses as uncertainty persists. Retailers are likely to seek delivery consolidation, while food processors may review inventory buffers under changing cost expectations.
Construction firms are expected to price transport and materials more conservatively as fuel costs fluctuate. Farmers are also expected to monitor diesel costs more closely than crop prices in some weeks . The operational impact is therefore framed around volatility in transport and energy inputs through the third quarter rather than an immediate collapse in supply.
Where exposure may be greatest
The companies most able to manage shifting input costs are those with scale, indexed contracts and cash buffers. Larger logistics groups can negotiate fuel supply arrangements and pass through costs more easily than smaller operators. Retail chains with dense distribution networks can protect margins better than fragmented businesses.
Export manufacturers with predictable order books can incorporate fuel volatility into pricing decisions more readily than firms relying on spot arrangements . Smaller companies operating on spot contracts face greater exposure if fuel becomes less predictable as an expense line item. Fuel-sensitive industries are expected to plan for unstable transport and energy costs through the third quarter.
Possible stabilisation is linked to resolution of the NIS licensing and ownership question alongside easing oil prices . If no durable solution emerges, the risk extends beyond higher fuel costs toward renewed government intervention through reserves, excise adjustments or price controls . For now, Serbia’s energy story remains tied not only to oil markets but also to how geopolitical risk flows into domestic cost structures.
