Measured against nominal GDP, Serbia’s export-oriented production reached approximately 54–55% in 2025 on a gross basis. The calculation uses nominal GDP of €88.67 billion, goods exports of €33.07 billion, and services exports of approximately €15.23 billion.
Goods exports correspond to 37.3% of GDP, while services exports account for 17.2%, producing a combined gross export-to-GDP ratio of 54.5%. The structure reflects gross trade flows and does not isolate domestic value added, as imported inputs such as energy, components, machinery, metals, chemicals, and other intermediates are embedded in export production. This means the actual domestic value added contained in exports is lower than the gross ratio, particularly in sectors including automotive production, electronics, rubber, machinery, and metal processing.
Industrial Export Base and Goods Trade Dynamics
Goods exports totaled €33.07 billion in 2025, increasing by 8.4% year on year, according to data from the National Bank of Serbia. Imports reached €41.86 billion, resulting in a goods trade deficit of €8.79 billion and an export-import coverage ratio of 79.0%.
For January–April 2026, goods exports increased by 8.2% year on year to €11.78 billion, while imports were nearly unchanged at €14.11 billion, raising the coverage ratio to 83.5%.
On an annualized basis, performance in the first four months of 2026 implies goods exports close to 40% of 2025 GDP, although full-year results remain dependent on industrial production cycles, energy conditions, and commodity market developments in the second half of the year.
Manufacturing Contribution and Sector Concentration
Manufacturing represents the primary driver of Serbia’s export expansion. Under balance-of-payments methodology, manufacturing contributed 7.6 percentage points to total goods export growth of 8.7% in 2025, according to the National Bank of Serbia.
Within manufacturing, the strongest contributions came from motor vehicles and trailers, rubber and plastics, and food products. In the first quarter of 2026, manufacturing again led export growth, contributing 7.9 percentage points, with motor vehicles and trailers alone accounting for 6.2 percentage points.
The export structure remains concentrated in several industrial clusters, including automotive and components, electrical machinery, rubber and plastics, base metals, copper-related production, food processing, pharmaceuticals, and machinery.
EU Trade Exposure and Product Composition
The European Commission reported that Serbia’s exports to the European Union were led by machinery and transport equipment valued at €8.18 billion, manufactured goods classified chiefly by material at €5.21 billion, and chemicals and related products at €4.03 billion. Total Serbian goods exports to the EU reached €25.91 billion in 2025, increasing by 8.4% year on year.
According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, EU countries accounted for 62.4% of Serbia’s goods exports in 2025 under National Bank of Serbia reporting, while EU member states represented 58.3% of total external goods trade under SORS reporting. In the first quarter of 2026, the EU share of Serbia’s goods exports increased to 63.2%, supported primarily by stronger automotive exports to Italy.
Services Expansion and External Balance Composition
Services exports reached approximately €15.2 billion in 2025, including ICT services of €4.55 billion, other business services of €3.81 billion, and additional service categories totaling €6.87 billion. The services surplus stood at €2.3 billion, partially offsetting the goods trade deficit.
In the first quarter of 2026, services exports totaled €3.7 billion, with a surplus of €778.2 million, representing 17.0% year-on-year growth. ICT and business services form a significant portion of Serbia’s external services sector, alongside transport, tourism, and other service categories.
Export Structure and Value-Added Composition
The overall export-to-GDP ratio indicates that Serbia’s economy is strongly linked to external demand. However, the gross export figure reflects embedded imported inputs, including capital goods, intermediate industrial materials, and energy components used in production processes.
Industrial exports remain more import-intensive, while services exports—particularly ICT and business services—contain a higher share of domestic value added and lower import content. This structure results in a dual composition in which industrial production drives export volume, employment, and supply-chain activity, while services contribute relatively higher domestic value added per unit of export revenue.
Growth Composition and Economic Transition
The export profile is characterized by dependence on a limited set of industrial production segments, with automotive manufacturing, electrical machinery, metals, and processed food products forming the largest contributors to goods exports. Services exports, including ICT and business services, represent a growing share of export composition and provide higher domestic value-added intensity compared with goods exports. The combined structure places Serbia’s export economy at approximately 54.5% of GDP on a gross basis in 2025, with upward movement dependent on continued expansion in both goods and services trade through 2026.
