The Ministry of Finance estimates, taking into account current economic trends and prospects for the international environment, that GDP growth in 2023 will amount to 2.5 percent, while in 2024 it will accelerate to 3.5 percent.
Macroeconomic trends at the beginning of 2023 are generally at the projected level, it was stated in the document Instructions for the preparation of the budget of the Republic of Serbia for 2024 and projections for 2025 and 2026.
However, the uncertainty present in the projections remains far greater than usual due to the nature and extent of the shocks at the global level.
As stated, the risks of the macroeconomic framework mostly stem from uncertainty regarding the development of the situation in Ukraine and the impact of new international economic and political relations, as well as from the stability of the global financial system.
According to the data of the Republic Institute of Statistics, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was 0.7 percent year-on-year.
Viewed from the production side, economic growth in the first quarter of 2023 was driven by service activities and additionally supported by the growth of industrial production.
Within the services sector, divergent trends were recorded. The sector of information and communication technologies (ICT), tourism, as well as administrative and professional services continued to make a positive contribution to growth, while a negative contribution came from trade, as well as from activities with dominant state participation (education, health, public administration).
Total industrial production achieved growth in gross added value of 2.3 percent year-on-year, primarily as a result of stabilization in production
Of electricity, while the manufacturing industry recorded a 1.5 percent drop due to reduced external demand.
An almost neutral contribution to GDP growth came from construction, while agriculture, assuming an average agricultural season, recorded a growth of around 5.4 percent.
Net taxes had a negative contribution as a consequence of lower real household consumption.
Observed by consumption aggregates, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was entirely driven by net exports, while the contribution of domestic demand was negative.
The effect on the supply side, along with the moderate recovery of external demand in this period, resulted in real export growth of 8.3 percent year-on-year.
On the other hand, import activity recorded a drop of 1.8 percent, primarily as a result of lower energy imports.
Private consumption, under the influence of inflation and high
Last year’s base, recorded a real drop of 0.2 percent. Last year’s high base effect was influenced by impulse buying by the population immediately after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as fiscal stimulus in the form of support for young people and pensioners during the first quarter of the previous year, reports Tanjug.
The still present uncertainty Is reflected in the confidence of investors, but the level of investments in basic funds achieved a slight growth compared to the first quarter of the previous year.
The main negative contribution to GDP growth came from stocks, primarily as a result of the base effect, i.e. high energy imports at the beginning of the previous year, as well as consumption during the winter months.
