Economists at Raiffeisen Bank have projected that annual inflation in Serbia will reach approximately 4.1 percent by 2026, citing several emerging risks that may contribute to upward price pressures. This forecast slightly diverges from the National Bank of Serbia’s (NBS) recent projections, which estimate inflation to remain close to its target range, hovering around 4 percent by year-end.
In their February economic report, analysts from Raiffeisen Bank outlined various risk factors that could drive inflation higher. One notable concern is the scheduled expiration of a government regulation that currently caps trading margins on select goods, set to take effect in early March. Additionally, the analysts highlighted base effects, particularly in food prices, and uncertainties surrounding agricultural production due to adverse weather conditions in recent seasons as potential contributors to rising costs.
Another specific risk identified relates to a regulatory change associated with the European Union’s 90/180 day rule for drivers’ stays, which is expected to impact transport operators starting in April. The bank’s economists caution that without adjustments for the transport sector, this regulation could increase costs for imported goods, thereby exerting inflationary pressure.
Global oil price trends also represent a significant uncertainty factor. Raiffeisen analysts pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially concerning Iran, may lead to volatility in crude oil prices, affecting domestic fuel costs. In Serbia, the ambiguity surrounding the future ownership and operations of Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS) until its privatization is completed adds another layer of potential inflationary pressure on fuel and transportation expenses.
The report noted that January 2026 marked the first month-on-month rise in food prices since the introduction of regulatory margin limits last year. This increase was partly driven by markets not subject to the margin cap, which raised costs for fresh produce. Other elements contributing to consumer price inflation included housing, utilities, and services, resulting in a modest overall increase in monthly prices.
Raiffeisen Bank’s forecast of around 4.1 percent indicates moderate price growth; however, the highlighted risks emphasize that inflation dynamics are sensitive to both domestic regulatory changes and external cost pressures, particularly within food and energy sectors. Continuous monitoring of these factors will be essential for policymakers and businesses as they navigate the macroeconomic landscape through 2026.
