Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, ahead of Slovenia’s €72 million, making them the largest directly recorded EU markets, according to customs data. The EU carbon-border regime is making verified product-level emissions data an increasingly important part of supplier specifications, alongside alloy, gauge and surface-quality requirements.
EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, approximately €448 million, in 2025. France bought €64 million, while Croatia and Romania followed with purchases of €36 million and €35 million, respectively.
The customs-entry figures do not identify the factories that ultimately incorporated the metal into construction systems, machinery or transport equipment. German and Slovenian processors can aggregate purchases and produce components for customers across several EU markets, so the customs destination may differ from the location of final manufacturing.
Processed products dominate trade categories
EU imports included about €149 million of Serbian aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, €79 million of containers under HS7612, about €62 million of other articles under HS7616 and around €41 million of profiles under HS7604. The product mix indicates trade in processed metal rather than only primary smelting.
Serbian aluminium scrap under HS7602 was also traded, but scrap is not covered by the initial CBAM annex and should be excluded from a precise CBAM trade total. The EU product categories therefore do not represent a single uniform exposure to the carbon-border rules.
The cost passed on to an EU purchaser depends on direct embedded emissions under current CBAM coverage, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains important to plant competitiveness and buyers’ broader sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial CBAM certificate calculation for aluminium.
Exposure estimate depends on emissions data
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated aluminium CBAM exposure at €19.5 million in 2026 and projected it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry models possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but that recognition must not be assumed automatically. Suppliers also need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon commercial claims.
Commercial arrangements can further complicate the relationship between customs data and compliance. A Serbian exporter may negotiate with a distributor that carries inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon data; identifying which party sets commercial terms can be as important as identifying the customs destination.
Exporters face batch-level reporting demands
Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025 and named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Its disclosures indicate industrial export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that particular shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging.
Claims about specific final customers or end uses would require additional contract or supply-chain evidence. Suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities and demonstrate reliable physical quality alongside documentary compliance can help defend access to European manufacturing chains.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer
