Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026, as exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting price and delivery terms. The estimate is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, but CBAM-related costs could affect supplier contracts and access to EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, imports matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes were worth €111.23 billion, based on the border value of the goods rather than the value of certificates owed. That total includes imports from exempt source countries; after those origins are excluded, about €94.74 billion remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of EU imports covered by the codes in 2025, while aluminium represented €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin in the aggregate, but its trade is concentrated in corridors connecting Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, involving metals, electricity and other covered products shipped from Serbian producers and traders into the EU.
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, extending the compliance issue beyond a handful of large producers.
The ministry’s baseline scenario puts exposure at €161.4 million in 2029. Its 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are projections, not invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions data shape contracts
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants have the formal reporting and certificate obligations. However, related commercial costs can be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or passed forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers.
Negotiations will depend in part on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source goods with lower embedded carbon elsewhere. The commercial question for Serbian exporters is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain their EU customers.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route has commercial value only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the EU importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer
